NFL Regular Season Wins Betting
One of the most popular features of NFL futures betting is NFL regular season win totals. It is no surprise that the 2022 NFL Regular Season Win Totals look a lot like last year’s standings with a few exceptions. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won the Super Bowl two years ago, but lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams last year, have the highest win total at 11.5 along with the Buffalo Bills who lost to Kansas City in last year’s NFL Playoffs. The Green Bay Packers, led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers are listed next with a win total of 11 and they are followed by last year’s Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams at 10.5 and the Kansas City Chiefs who won the Super Bowl three years ago. Five other teams have double-digit win totals led by last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, the Cincinnati Bengals. They are joined by the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers.
On the other end of the spectrum are the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans. Both teams have their win total listed at 4.5.
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*Odds as of Monday, September 5, 9:00 AM ET
Betting on NFL Regular Season Win Totals
To wager on NFL win totals you are simply betting on a team to go over or under the total listed on the board. For example, the Buffalo Bills opened with a 2022 regular season win total of 11.5. To win an over bet on Buffalo, the Bills would have to win a total of 12 games or more during the regular season. By contrast, to win a bet on the Bills to go under the total, Buffalo would have to win fewer than 12 games.
Although many people like to bet a team to go over their win total, that is not always the best way to go. You may find better value in going under a team’s win total. It is not very popular to root against a team all season, but that is usually where the value lies. For example, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a win total of 11.5. They have a new head coach this year and a quarterback in Tom Brady who appears to be closing in on retirement. The Bucs have to win 12 games to go over the total and that might be difficult to do considering Brady’s age and with a new head coach.
Most Common Mistakes and Worst Approaches
The most common mistake that handicappers make in regard to betting on NFL regular season win totals is betting on last year or past records. That leads to the Seattle Seahawks. For the 2022 season the Seahawks opened with a regular season win total of 5.5. The causal public may be betting on Seattle to go over that win total, but the Seahawks no longer have Russell Wilson under center, as he is now in Denver and it make take some time for Seattle to get back into contention until they get a proven quarterback under center.
Factors to Consider
Wagering on pro football win totals begins with an honest assessment of a team itself. Roster depth, coaching changes, new and departed players and schedule are all important factors. The division a team plays in is another important factor to consider. The NFC West has been one of the stronger divisions in the NFL in recent seasons, but that honor looks to have shifted to the AFC West, as the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers and Raiders all look like playoff teams.
There usually aren't many surprises when it comes to handicapping the regular season win totals. Teams are often placed right around the point where they finished last year, adjusting a game or two on way or the other to account for roster changes, strength of schedule and general luck over the course of the previous season. In a league where it isn't unusual for all of the teams to finish between 4-12 and 12-4 on an annual basis, you can understand why it might be a little frustrating to bet on these regular season win totals. One slip up late in a game that should be a win and the club you bet over the total will suddenly need to find another victory somewhere along the way.
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