2025 Sunday Night Football Best Bets - NFL Lines & Picks

2025 NFL Sunday Night Football Week 5 Betting Lines

Only two unbeaten teams remain in the NFL and one of them is featured in the Week 5 Sunday Night Football matchup. MVP Josh Allen leads the Buffalo Bills against the New England Patriots in an AFC East tilt. And the way the season has started the Bills could have another division title locked up by Halloween. Buffalo improved to 4-0 with a tougher than expected, 31-19, win over New Orleans on Sunday giving the Bills 14 straight regular season home victories. They haven’t lost in western New York during the regular year since Week 10 of the 2023 season.

Division titles are nothing new to these teams. New England set an NFL record with 11 straight crowns that ended with the first of Buffalo’s current five straight in 2020. The Pats are looking to be relevant again after falling on hard times since the departure of Tom Brady. They’ve split their first four games getting them half way to their win from each of the previous two seasons. The Pats are the only AFC East team to beat Buffalo in the Bills’ past 13 division games, doing so twice most recently to end the 2024 season.

Patriots at Bills SNF Week 5 Lines

Spread: Bills -7.5

Total: 49

Money Line: Patriots +314 / Bills -384

Patriots at Bills Betting Preview

Through the first four games we’ve seen two different New England teams. They evened their record with a 42-13 win over Carolina on Sunday and the Pats have scored a total of 75 points in their two wins. They’ve been less efficient in the other games scoring a combined 27 points in losses to Las Vegas and Pittsburgh. Defensively they’ve been solid ranking third against the run and 10th in scoring defense.

The Pats have been hurt through the air, though, allowing Geno Smith to throw for 362 yards and a TD in the Vegas game. Aaron Rodgers had a pair of scoring passes, including the game-winner in the final minutes, in the Steelers win. New England allows an average of more than 241 passing yards per game to rank 27th in the NFL. The defense has been more consistent than the offense, though.

The Pats have turned the ball over six times and are minus-3 in turnover differential. All the miscues came in the games they lost. In Week 3 the Pats lost four fumbles and Drake Maye tossed a pick. And despite five giveaways, two of which came inside the Pittsburgh 5-yard line, the Patriots were right there to the end and were even driving for a potential game-tying score before turning the ball over on downs.

Their remarkable comeback win over Baltimore in the opener set the stage for what was to come for the Bills. Each of their last three wins were by at least 10 points and they are the only team to score at least 30 points in every game. They failed to cover the huge spread in their last two outings beating the Saints on Sunday 31-19 at a 14.5-point favorite and laying 11 points to Miami in a 31-21 Week 3 victory.

Josh Allen continues to play at a high level and the emergence of James Cook has helped balance the attack. Allen accounted for three TDs in Sunday’s win over New Orleans and has seven TD passes and three rushing scores this season. Cook has three straight 100-yard rushing games and is second in the NFL with 401 rushing yards. He leads the league with five rushing TDs.

The teams have split the last four meetings with New England getting payouts in all of them. The Pats won the most recent contest, 23-16, in last regular season’s finale when the Bills rested most of their regulars, including Allen.

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