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Kentucky Derby Betting: Nowadays, it's really hard for a maiden to even reach the Kentucky Derby. The qualifying process for the Derby makes it so you have to be nominated for the biggest races on your home track, and more qualified ponies generally take the spots in those fields where you can get Kentucky Derby points.
In the case of Sonneteer though, we have a pony who didn't win any of his first eight races before being entered into the Rebel Stakes. Now, in spite of the fact that he hasn't won a thing yet in his career, he's at least got a chance to run against the big boys on the biggest stage at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May.
The Kentucky Derby will go to post on Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 6:34 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Catch the Kentucky Derby live on NBC.
Sonneteer
Career Record: 0-4-2 ( 10 Races )
Career Earnings: $284,445
Kentucky Derby Points: 30
Kentucky Derby Odds at BookMaker.eu: +4500
Talk about always being a bridesmaid and never being a bride. Sonneteer has done just that, finishing second four times in his career and showing on two other instances. But no wins are ultimately no wins, and it's been the better part of a century now since any maiden has won the Kentucky Derby. Sonneteer might have the opportunity to break that hex though, and if he does ultimately get a few defections and have the chance to run in the Kentucky Derby, he'll do so as a 45 to 1 longshot.
Why Sonneteer Will Win the Kentucky Derby
Some horses are just better at distance than others, and maybe this is the calling for Sonneteer. He has never run at longer than a mile and an eighth, and he seemed to be more in his element when racing at the longest distances of the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby than he was in his shorter maiden races.
Plus, go back and look at the training records for Sonneteer. He's a workout warrior, for crying out loud! If a horse can go six furlongs in 1:13 flat, there's no reason to think that he can't ultimately win a race when push comes to shove.
Why Sonneteer Won't Win the Kentucky Derby
The obvious answer? He's never won anything before, so why should he have any opportunity to win the biggest race of his career? Sonneteer has had five different jockeys on his back and has failed with all five, including Kent Desormeaux, the brother of Sonneteer's trainer, Keith Desormeaux. These two have hooked up to produce championship colts before, but Sonneteer doesn't look like he's going to be amongst them.
For a more analytical look at why Sonneteer won't win the Derby, consider the fact that he has never run better than a 94 Beyer Speed Rating. He'll need to be 10 points better than that at dead minimum to win the Run for the Roses. Good luck.
The Final Verdict
It's just not likely that Sonneteer is going to be any sort of a factor in the Kentucky Derby, if he even gets the chance to run. It's amazing to us that he was even able to get Triple Crown nominated while running all over California just trying to break a maiden, and it's even more amazing that he was second best against a good field at the Rebel Stakes. That's what got him to the Arkansas Derby and at least gave him a chance to qualify. Third would have done it. Fourth left him on the proverbial bubble.
We could see a case for Sonneteer, but it takes squinting a lot and using a lot of – ahem – "alternative facts" to see that being the case. Proceed if you like throwing money away.
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2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders
