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Kentucky Derby Betting: You never like to see a horse put forth a bad effort in his last race before the Kentucky Derby. But Malagacy did enough with his impressive win in the Rebel Stakes to get himself into the field at Churchill Downs, and he's going to represent the best opportunity trainer Todd Pletcher has of capturing the Kentucky Derby this year.
The Kentucky Derby will go to post on Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 6:34 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Catch the Kentucky Derby live on NBC.
Malagacy
Career Record: 3-0-0 ( 4 Races )
Career Earnings: $616,800
Kentucky Derby Points: 40
Kentucky Derby Odds at BookMaker.eu: +1400
Malagacy was a relatively big underdog in his first maiden race in January at Gulfstream Park, but he was ridden out to a 104 Beyer Speed Rating by Javier Castellano, and that was the start of some big things for him. He turned around in his first allowance race and won by seven lengths against a field of six, and that was followed by an impressive run in the Rebel Stakes in which he was a 3 to 1 second favorite.
But now, after the failure of being the second favorite to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby, Malagacy is one of the middling shots in the Kentucky Derby at 14 to 1.
Why Malagacy Will Win the Kentucky Derby
Malagacy has everything you'd want to see out of a Kentucky Derby winner. He's not overly run in his career with just four races, he's never put together less than a 93 Beyer Speed Rating, and up until his dud at the Arkansas Derby, he was a winner every single time out. He's got a great racing style of getting towards the front of the field without actually setting the pace, and the aura between he and Castellano seems to be on point. There's good breeding, there's good, strong connections and Pletcher is as good of a trainer as there is nowadays. That's about all anyone could ask for when looking for a horse to bet on for the Derby.
Why Malagacy Won't Win the Kentucky Derby
Declining results. This is a big issue that we have with Malagacy. As the competition he has run up against has improved, his results have been significantly worse. His first race was a 104 Beyer. Then it was a 103. Then a 95. And now most recently, a 93. Yikes. Furthermore, his margins of victory are decreasing with each race, and the one time he was pushed to do a lot in the Arkansas Derby against a really good field, he folded in the stretch run. Is distance an issue? It's entirely possible.
The other concern here is going to be post position. It's going to be incredibly important for Malagacy to have a good post in the middle part of the track. Too far inside, and he's going to have to exert a lot of energy to avoid getting boxed in. Too far outside, and he'll be like he was at the Arkansas Derby, expending some juice just to get to the head of the pack before the first turn.
The Final Verdict
We're going to wait and see with Malagacy. We know he can win this race even though Classic Empire outdid him at the Arkansas Derby, and a friendly post draw can make things a lot better for him as well. A poor post draw though, and this is a horse we won't be anywhere near when it comes to our exotics. We hate the fact that it looks like he gave up in the Arkansas Derby, and if that's the disposition he's going to have when the going gets tough, he could easily fail to reach the board as well.
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2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders