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Kentucky Derby Betting: Over the course of eight races, Bravazo has been very up and down. At times, he looks like he is a potential challenger to win one of the Triple Crown races. In other races, he seems to have no business belonging in a race with real contenders. It will be interesting to see which Bravazo shows up on Saturday.
After winning his second attempt at a maiden, Bravazo turned heads at the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. He entered the race at 47-1 odds and ended up finishing second. That led to him racing in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, where he finished in 10th place and never had a chance of hitting the board.
Following that poor performance, he was entered into a claiming race which he barely won. Then, he again was a massive underdog entering a major race. Bravazo was 21-1 coming into the Risen Star Stakes and ended up besting the field in order to give bettors a huge payday.
True to form, Bravazo had to follow the best race of his career with possibly his worst. He was one of the favorites heading into the Louisiana Derby and ended up finishing in eighth.
The Kentucky Derby will go to post on Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 6:34 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Catch the Kentucky Derby live on NBC.
Bravazo
Career Record: 3-1-1
Career Earnings: $436,528
Kentucky Derby Points: 54
Kentucky Derby Odds at BookMaker.eu: +6050
Awesome Again is Bravazo’s sire, and his dam is Tiz o’ Gold. Awesome Again is one of the best Canadian racehorses ever, and he has been successful as a sire too. One of his progeny, Oxbow, won the 2013 Preakness Stakes.
The legendary D. Wayne Lukas is Bravazo’s trainer. Lukas has an incredible record at the Derby, and that gives the horse some hope. He has seen 10 of his 48 horses here hit the board.
Luis Contreras will jockey Bravazo. He has not raced at the Kentucky Derby in six years after finishing 18th on Prospective back in 2012.
Why Bravazo Will Win the Kentucky Derby
If this horse is having a good day, he is a threat to contend. His performance at the Risen Stakes showed what he is capable of. Bravazo topped a field that included Noble Indy and Instilled Regard just a few months ago, so at least he has a chance.
Also working in his favor is his experience at Churchill Downs. This will be his fourth race on this track.
Why Bravazo Won't Win the Kentucky Derby
Bravazo is wildly inconsistent and it’s hard to bet on a horse whose performance fluctuates so rapidly. He has posted speed ratings in the 70s in two of his last four races and that is incredibly woeful.
Additionally, this will be the first time that Contreras has ever rode Bravazo. He has had four other jockeys ride him over his career, and it’s a bit concerning that the horse has seen so much change.
The Final Verdict
If you wanted to back this horse, that wouldn’t be an awful play. He has shown he can run well and that may be worth a risk at these odds. For me, it’s a little too much. Arguably his two worst performances came against the two strongest fields he faced, and that’s not a good sign.
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2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders
