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Kentucky Derby Betting: Typically, 34 points is enough to get into the Kentucky Derby field. In the case of Untrapped, it leaves him squarely on the bubble. If any of the top 20 contenders bails out of the Run for the Roses – something that happens virtually every single year – Untrapped will be in the field of 20 and will have a shot to stake his claim at glory.
The Kentucky Derby will go to post on Saturday, May 6, 2017 at 6:34 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Catch the Kentucky Derby live on NBC.
Untrapped
Career Record: 1-3-1 ( 6 Races )
Career Earnings: $259,658
Kentucky Derby Points: 34
Kentucky Derby Odds at BookMaker.eu: +5000
There are at least a few things to like about Untrapped, and you could make a case for him winning the Run for the Roses even though he's never won anything short of a maiden race. Maybe the best case for Untrapped is the fact that he has never been worse than 9 to 1 to win any given race, including when he was 6 to 1 at the Arkansas Derby against a field that included the new Kentucky Derby favorite, Classic Empire. Of course, finishing sixth in that race won't help his cause any, and that's why he's considered one of the real longshots to win the Run for the Roses at 50 to 1.
Why Untrapped Will Win the Kentucky Derby
Untrapped has one victory under his belt, and it happened to be here at Churchill Downs. Sure, it was only a maiden race, but he won that race by 5 1/4 lengths, and for our money, that was the best race of his career.
Let's also remember that Untrapped has run against some really good ponies along the way. He was beaten by Gunnavera at the Risen Star Stakes, Malagacy at the Rebel Stakes and Classic Empire at the Arkansas Derby, and those horses are all going to be amongst the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that a colt like Untrapped could come from a stalking position to at least hit the board, something he had done in every race in his career up until the Arkansas Derby.
Why Untrapped Won't Win the Kentucky Derby
Wins are the ultimate test of a championship horse, and Untrapped doesn't have a lot of them to speak of. He's never run faster than a 96 Beyer Speed Rating, and he's never been the favorite in any race outside of his second maiden which he happened to win. We don't love the fact that he's had three different jockeys on his back in his last three races, and Steve Asmussen has made no bones about the fact that this is, at best, his third best horse that could be entering the Run for the Roses. It's a sad state for sure for a pony who has some potential, but he'll have to find the exact right combination to win, and that probably isn't happening one out of 50 times against a field like this.
The Final Verdict
Untrapped is a fine pony, but he's not suited for these Grade 1 races. He's a Grade 2 or Grade 3 horse at best, and we don't think he's ever going to be running well against the big boys. There's a reason why he's considered to be one of the longest shots on the board to win the Kentucky Derby, and we think that Asmussen would be better served holding him out of this one and potentially prepping him for the summer series instead of the Triple Crown. We wouldn't be shocked if Untrapped ran in the Kentucky Derby, but we would be shocked if he ultimately finished in the top half of the field.
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2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders
