NFL Predictions – Week 10 Fade The Public Play

The public had it right last week with our fade plays falling short at the betting window. I expected more from the Browns after making a coaching change. While they looked better, they offered little resistance to the Chiefs, who steamrolled yet another opponent and easily cover the 8-point spread in a 37-21 win. KC is the most profitable team in the NFL improving to 8-1 SU and ATS after last week’s victory. Just how good are the Chiefs? They’re laying 17 points to Arizona on the opening NFL betting line and three-quarters of the early action is in their favor.

Undeterred from our losses last week, we’ll examine some Week 10 matchups to determine where money can be won when going against the public wagers on the early NFL betting lines at A Thursday Night Football matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers gets the betting week started. Both teams are playing well and the early action is backing the Panthers, who opened as a 5-point dog and saw the spread drop to +3.5. Are the Panthers the best play of Week 10? Let’s take a look at that matchup and a few others as our fade the public play picks of the week.

Carolina Panthers ( +3.5 ) at Pittsburgh Steelers

This game has all the makings to be an epic Thursday night encounter. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and the Panthers are looking a lot like the 2015 version that rolled through the regular season and into the Super Bowl. Cam Newton is playing at a higher level and Carolina’s offense just dropped 42 in a win over the Bucs last week. That outing came a week after the Panthers ripped the No. 1 ranked Ravens defense for nearly 400 yards and 36 points. The Panthers are on a hot streak having won three straight and the public is backing Cam and his mates with 70 percent of the early action.

But never count out Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, who have a nice little run of their own going. They’ve gotten over the Le’Veon Bell saga thanks to James Conner, the offensive line has produced and the defense has been as good as any in the Mike Tomlin era over the past four weeks. The Steelers are giving up an average of 18 points while winning their last four games and Baltimore’s biggest plays on Sunday came on pass interference calls. That’s saying something. This is actually a TNF game worth watching and I like the Steelers at home to cover.

Seattle Seahawks ( +10 ) at Los Angeles Rams

Giving Russell Wilson 10 points to play with apparently is something a majority of the betting public can’t pass up. The visitors where showered with 90 percent of the early action when the spread hit the board and we could see that number fall as the week progresses. Seattle twice had a touchdown lead in the fourth quarter when these teams met in the Pacific Northwest earlier in the year, and that should be a motivating factor for Seattle. A victory is needed for the Seahawks to stay relevant in the NFC playoff picture.

The Rams aren’t stressing out over their first loss of the year, and neither are the oddsmakers. The Rams have been favored in every game this season but they haven’t enjoyed a lot of success against the line, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six. One of those losses was to Seattle when they failed to cover the 7.5-point line in a 33-31 win. This could be a letdown spot for the Rams, who play the Chiefs in Mexico City in Week 11 before their bye, but I doubt it.

San Francisco 49ers ( -3 ) vs. New York Giants

In a season of gloom, the Niners actually had something to rave about last week. The performance of Nick Mullens in his NFL debut was one for the ages, and the Niners ended a six-game skid with a dismantling of the Raiders. It’s hard to put this game into perspective since the Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL. But the numbers don’t lie. Mullens completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. His passer rating of 151.9 is a modern era record for debuts with at least 20 pass attempts.

Even if Mullens didn’t have a sterling first game the Niners would be favored in this matchup. Kyle Shanahan hasn’t made it official, but his team has two wins so he might as well give the rookie another shot. I’m not ready to anoint Mullens, and neither are the Giants, who have issues to work through. Coming off a bye should benefit the G-Men while the Niners are looking ahead to their off-week. I’ll take New York and a field goal against what the public is saying.

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