If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. I refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We are off to a good start this season, going 3-2 in Week 1 and 3-1 in Week 2. It is on to Week 3 with four games we’ll take a look at. Let’s take a look at the Week 3 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 3 Ugly Dog Picks
Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bills
The Bengals were a disgrace last week in a home loss to San Francisco and the public always remember what they saw last. On the other side, the Bills come into this game at 2-0 and bettors are backing the Bills at home. Cincinnati is having all kinds of trouble on their offensive line, so it is hard to see them doing much on offense against Buffalo, and the Cincinnati defense gave up 41 points at home last week to the 49ers, so it is hard to see Cincinnati winning. The Bengals definitely fit the criteria of an ugly dog and we’ll take them plus the points this week.
New York Jets +21.5 at New England Patriots
Talk is already beginning that this year’s New England team could go undefeated. They sure don’t figure to lose this week as they host a New York team that is down to their third string quarterback. The Jets were routed at home last week by the Browns and they have no real chance to win this week on the road against the Patriots. Going against the Patriots is always tough to do, and there is no doubt this one is ugly, but that is what this column is all about. It is worth noting that teams favored by 21 points or more are 35-0 straight up in NFL history, but just 11-22-2 against the spread. We’ll take the Jets plus the points as an ugly dog.
Miami Dolphins +21 at Dallas Cowboys
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I can’t remember any time in recent history where there were two teams getting 21 points or more in the same week. Looking back, it appears that the last time it happened was 1977. Unfortunately the Dolphins are going to be a regular in this column and so far they have given us two of our three losses. I don’t think this line is high enough, so you should wait to get the best possible number, as I would not be surprised to see it go to 23 or even 24. It is almost to the point where I have to put a disclaimer on the Dolphins and tell you to take them at your own risk, as this Miami team already looks like one of the worst teams in NFL history. It is not easy, but we’ll back the Dolphins plus the points as an ugly dog.
New York Giants +6.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Giants come into this game at 0-2 and they are making a quarterback change this week as they go from Eli Manning to Daniel Jones. There is no question that Manning is no longer a good quarterback, but New York’s problems go beyond the starting quarterback. New York has a great running back in Barkley, but not much else on offense and Jones may not be the answer. The Bucs are coming off a win last week against Carolina, but Tampa Bay is not a great team. The Giants fit into the ugly dog category simply because of how poorly they have played so far this season. I didn’t think we would be going against teams like Buffalo and Tampa Bay this season, but so far the Bills and Bucs have played pretty well. We’ll hope that Jones can give the Giants a spark and we’ll take the Giants as a Week 3 ugly dog.
Check out the latest Week 3 NFL odds at BookMaker.eu.
