NFL Props – Week 9 Fade The Public Play

We hit on one of our fades from last week, going with the visiting Broncos after the public strongly backed Kansas City. And we were fortunate that Denver scored the game’s final nine points and got the backdoor cover on a late field goal to pull within the 8.5-point line in a 30-23 loss. Undeterred from a couple of narrow losses on our fade plays, we’ll examine some Week 9 matchups to determine where money can be won when going against the public wagers on the early NFL betting lines at

The betting week gets started on Thursday night with the Battle of the Bay. You can throw the records out the window when the Raiders and Niners get together. And actually, they have been tossed since the teams are the worst in their respective conference and haven’t played in four years. Early public money is backing the silver and black, and a 3.5-point bonus is exciting. However, given the volatile situation on both sides, we’re going to stay away from that one. The Bucs are attempting to revive FitzMagic for their showdown with Carolina and the public aint buying it with over 90 percent of the early action on Cam Newton and his mates. Are the Panthers the best play of Week 9? Let’s take a look at that matchup and a few others as our fade the public play picks of the week.

Kansas City Chiefs ( +8 ) at Cleveland Browns

We faded the Chiefs last week and it paid off, so we’re going to the well once again. Teams respond differently to coaching changes and it was a minor miracle that Hue Jackson lasted as long as he did in Cleveland. But that came to an end this week when the team parted ways with Jackson and O-coordinator Todd Haley. The Browns have talent now and they should be better than 15-point losers to the Steelers.

After showing promise early in the year with a 2-2-1 record that could have and should have been better, the Browns have regressed and the move was made in an effort to keep the team afloat. Tying Pittsburgh in the opener when forcing six turnovers, and losing to the Saints on several botched kicks shows that the Browns aren’t that far off. But taking an overhand from the Steelers on Sunday was the last straw. I expect the Browns to have some energy and passion when they host the AFC-leading Chiefs, and I like the home team with the points, even though 80 percent of the betting public doesn’t.

Carolina Panthers ( -7 ) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cam and the Panthers destroyed the top defense in the league last week, handing the Ravens an emphatic 36-21 loss while winning their second straight game and fourth in the last five. There’s no denying the Panthers look good and that’s why 85 percent of the early action is backing them. After their hot start, the Bucs have faded by losing four of their last five games. But in the NFC South anything can happen, and the Bucs are going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick to try and grab some of that early season FitzMagic that saw Tampa beat New Orleans and Philadelphia in the first two weeks.

Fitz had one of the greatest starts to a season of any quarterback throwing for over 400 yards in each of the first three games with 11 touchdowns. The return of Jameis Winston from suspension and Fitz’s plummet to normalcy was enough to change things up. However, Winston’s struggles hit a high last week and he was benched after tossing four picks, giving him 10 in four games. Fitz has a knack for picking defenses apart and he values the football, giving the Bucs an edge with the 7-points they’re getting.

Los Angeles Chargers ( +1.5 ) at Seattle Seahawks

The Chargers are coming off their bye having won four in a row, and everyone likes the Bolts as a contender in the AFC, which is why they are getting nearly 60 percent of the early action for their tilt with Seattle in Week 9. But the Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the league after winning two straight and four of their last five to figure prominently in the playoff picture at the halfway point.

Seattle hasn’t played a home game in a month and you know the 12th man is going to be geeked for this one. They aren’t the Legion of Boom any longer, but the Seahawks are playing a brand of defense that would make that group proud. They also got K.J. Wright back in the lineup for last week’s win over Detroit, further strengthening a unit that ranks fourth in scoring and sixth overall. Seattle maintains one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL, and I’ll take them with 1.5 points, even though a majority of the betting public is going the other way.

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