NFL Picks – Week 8 Fade The Public Play

Things didn’t go so well for us last week on our public fades, but undeterred we’ll examine some of the Week 8 matchups, see which side the public is leaning on the early NFL betting lines at and make our own fearless prognostications on what teams should be faded. New England is getting nearly 85 percent of the early action for its Monday Night Football matchup with the Bills and it’s hard to imagine what the other 15 percent are thinking. Despite coming off as a 13.5-point favorite on the opening line, we’re going to back the Pats after watching the Bills implode against the Colts. And Buffalo’s quarterback situation is worse than that of Jacksonville.

The Pats were getting a majority of the play for last week’s contest with the Bills and we elected to fade them as a 3.5-point favorite against the Bears. It’s hard to go against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and the duo made us pay by covering. Aaron Rodgers opened as the biggest underdog in his career as a starter with the Pack getting 9.5-points, are they the best play of Week 8? We’ll examine that matchup and a few others as our fade the public play picks of the week.

Philadelphia Eagles ( -3.5 ) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags have looked horrible in losing three straight games, but I’m more inclined to see this as a good team going through a very rough stretch. It hasn’t helped that the offense has been decimated by injuries and Blake Bortles isn’t the kind of quarterback that’s going to win games on his own. The public has a very different view and the Eagles are getting pounded with over 80 percent of the early action. We saw the line open at Philly -2 and spike to -3.5 in a short time. The Jags’ play had a lot to do with that.

When looking at this game it’s all a matter of prospective. The teams have identical 3-4 records and the Jags knocked off the defending AFC champs in Week 2. The Jags have more than twice as many turnovers as touchdowns in the last three games, a stat that doesn’t make anyone scream winner. In an effort to shake things up Doug Marrone benched Bortles last week after a pair of turnovers and the team had a fiery postgame meeting. We saw Bortles get benched last preseason only to get the job back because the team has no options. We’re hoping for the Jags sake that things change. The defense is still solid and if given the slightest bit of help, it will return to its elite status. And I like the Jags to respond in this one, covering the line.

Green Bay Packers ( +9.5 ) at Los Angeles Rams

There’s no denying the Rams are the best team in the NFL and they showed off all their weapons in a 39-10 takedown of the 49ers last week. Todd Gurley continues to score touchdowns at an alarming rate, Jared Goff is one of the most efficient quarterbacks and the defense flexed its muscles. Aaron Donald got four of the Rams seven sacks and one of their four takeaways against the Niners, showing why he’s the reigning defensive player of the year. The Rams have been favored by at least 6.5-points in every game this season and they opened as 10-point chalk for their showdown with the Packers.

Against the same Niners team two weeks ago, the Packers needed Aaron Rodgers to pull off one of his patented comebacks. Green Bay scored 10 points in the last two minutes to win the game by a field goal. Coming off their bye with a chance to get healthy for this matchup, the Packers were getting a majority of the early action and giving Rodgers 9.5-points is deadly. But the Rams are the best for a reason and they will show the Pack exactly why.

Kansas City Chiefs ( +10 ) vs. Denver Broncos

The Chiefs are gaining supporters every week and they’re getting nearly 70 percent of the early action for their AFC West showdown with Denver. KC improved to 7-0 ATS by easily covering the 6.5-point line in their Sunday night win over Cincinnati and the offense is showing no signs of letting up. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdown passes for the second straight game and the Chiefs racked up over 550 yards of offense.

Denver hasn’t shown the offensive fireworks to keep up, but they were the only team so far to slow down the runaway freight train. When the teams met a few weeks ago in Denver, the Broncos squandered a 10-point fourth quarter lead, ruining an otherwise good night for the team. They held KC to a season-low point total in the 27-23 loss and limited the chunk plays that have become a trademark of the Chiefs offense. Duplicating that defensive effort isn’t out of the question for a team that’s built to play defense, and getting 10 points is a plus.

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