The Buffalo Bills take on the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night in a game that can be seen on ESPN. The Bills come into the game at 8-3 and leading the AFC East, while the 49ers are 5-6 and trying to stay in playoff contention in the NFC. It is important to note that this game will not be played in San Francisco, as it will take place at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Let’s look at the Monday night matchup and NFL picks.
Watch this regular season NFL Week 13 matchup on Monday, December 7, at 8:15 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium. Catch the game live on ESPN and bet on NFL odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Buffalo Bills -1
San Francisco 49ers +1
Total 48
Odds Analysis
There has been a lot of line movement toward the 49ers in this game. You would have expected the line to move toward Buffalo when the game was shifted from San Francisco to Glendale, but that has not been the case. The Bills were as high as a 3-point favorite and that number is down to one. There has been no substantial movement yet on the total.
Injury Report
The Bills placed one of their top receivers, John Brown, on injured reserve. He missed two games earlier this season but still is third on the team in yards and catches. The Bills did call up Jake Kumerow from the practice squad to join Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis. Perhaps a bigger loss for the Bills was the injury to offensive lineman Cody Ford. He was placed on injured reserve this week and is out for the season.
On the other side, the 49ers have dealt with more significant injuries than any other team in the NFL this season. They have been getting some players back but they are still without a number of top players. The good news for San Francisco is that Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Jones, and Jordan Willis have all come off the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
Key Matchup
The Buffalo defense will have to find a way to contain Deebo Samuel on Monday night. The Bills held Chargers star Keenan Allen to only 40 receiving yards and since Week 7, the Bills defense has combined for 29 sacks and takeaways, second-most in the league. Samuel is coming off a season-high 11 receptions for 133 receiving yards against the Rams. The 49ers will also get rookie Brandon Aiyuk back this week, as he missed last week. He has 35 catches for 446 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Interesting Fact
Did you know that the Bills have not won a Monday Night Football game since 1999? The Bills are going to get a couple of chances, as they play twice on Monday night in the last month of the season. Buffalo has lost seven straight on Monday Night Football. Their only Monday game under head coach Sean McDermott was in 2018 when they were blown out by New England.
Game Trends
The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. The Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Bills are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games. The 49ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Monday games. The Under is 4-1 in the Bills last 5 Monday games. The Under is 5-2 in the 49ers last 7 games as an underdog.
Free ATS Pick
This is almost a must-win for San Francisco and if Mullens can avoid turning the ball over I think the 49ers will get the win. I know that I have not had a lot of success picking totals, but I am shocked the total on this game is so high. Both Buffalo and San Francisco have good defenses and I expect a low scoring game. I will also play the game to go under the total.
NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Bills 20
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