It was a kiss your sister kind of week for the Wise Guy Picks after cashing in with the Texans and Vikings, but losing with the under in Cleveland and Packers on Monday night. In this day and age of betting on the NFL, everyone wants to know where the sharp money is and what number they got in at. Most public bettors never get to reap the value as a sharp bettor. Often times, the two are butting heads and the purpose of this piece is to highlight the games of the week where public picks are facing off with wise guy picks at online sportsbooks.
LAST WEEK: 2-2 ATS / YTD 10-3 ATS
Kansas City vs. Denver
Public – Chiefs ( -3 )
Wise Guys – Broncos ( +5 )
With the Chiefs winning each of the last seven matchups between these division rivals after sweeping last year’s pair of matchups and doing so by margin, it comes with little surprise to see the betting public once again riding Andy Reid’s squad on Thursday Night Football. They’ve done so every week of the season so why would this week be any different! That said, Denver was very competitive in each defeat a season ago and should’ve won the first matchup at home if not for Case Keenum’s late game antics. Vic Fangio has got his team playing at max effort right now which had wise guys hitting the home team plus the points at the open. KC has struggled of late in dropping two straight to the Colts and Texans. That ankle still looks to be bothering Patrick Mahomes, so you might as well continue fading him till it’s healed!
Minnesota vs. Detroit
Public – Lions ( +1 )
Wise Guys – Vikings ( +1 )
I’ll be the first to admit that the Lions look to be an improved football team in year two of the Matt Patricia regime. They’ve already got wins under their belt against the Chargers and Eagles, and likely should’ve defeated the Chiefs and Packers. But therein lays the problem. Detroit doesn’t know how to close. It let Kansas City off the hook back in Week 4 due to turnovers, and then allowed Aaron Rodgers and company to pull off the comeback win last Monday night in a game they looked dominant in throughout the first half. Say what you will about the terrible penalties that ultimately cost them the game; that’s just an excuse. Until the Lions figure out how to seal the deal, sharp bettors will have no issue fading them. Especially against what looks to be a rock solid Minnesota Vikings team that’s won and covered each of the last three meetings.
San Francisco vs. Washington
Public – 49ers ( -9.5 )
Wise Guys – Redskins ( +10 )
After what the 49ers just did to the Rams last week, can you blame public bettors for continuing to ride San Fran’s money train? Do you know when the last time San Francisco was asked to lay double-digits on the road? No, well I’ll tell you – 1998! Linemakers haven’t asked them to do as such since the turn of the century! Washington stinks, I get it; but this is an early kick on the east coast with the Niners coming off arguably the most impressive win of the Kyle Shanahan era. Washington’s already been blown out by the Cowboys, Bears and Patriots – so why not the 49ers? It looks too easy – buyer beware!
New Orleans vs. Chicago
Public – Saints ( +3.5 )
Wise Guys – Bears ( -3 )
Hats off to Sean Payton and the players on the Saints roster for more than just keeping the ship afloat while Drew Brees mends his jacked up thumb. Due to Teddy Bridgewater proving to be a solid game manager, New Orleans is now the odds on +280 favorite to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LIV. With wins over the Seahawks, Cowboys, Buccaneers and Jaguars over the last month, the betting public has lined up in droves to back them in the Windy City against a Bears team coming off the bye that’s grossly failed to live up to preseason expectations through its first five games. Even so, linemakers opened them up better than field goal favorites to come out on top of this Week 7 battle. While New Orleans did attract some wagers from wise guys at that impost, a bulk of the bets came in on Chicago immediately after the number to beat fell to -3. While Chicago no doubt has some injury concerns, so too does the Saints. New Orleans is fool’s gold this week, so don’t take the bait!
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