The Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys have been automatic bets for public bettors this season. It’s been as easy as set it and forget it through the first three weeks with the teams going a combined 8-1 versus the closing NFL betting lines. In this day and age of betting on the NFL, everyone wants to know where the sharp money is and what number they got in at. Most public bettors never get to reap the value as a sharp bettor. Often times, the two are butting heads and the purpose of this piece is to highlight the games of the week where public picks are facing off with wise guy picks at online sportsbooks.
LAST WEEK: 0-0 ATS / YTD 0-0 ATS
Philadelphia vs. Green Bay
Public – Packers ( -3 )
Wise Guys – Eagles ( +4.5 )
The public and wise guys aren’t seeing eye-to-eye in Week 4’s installment of Thursday Night Football. The public has flocked to the Packers in droves betting them on the pointspread, moneyline while also adding Aaron Rodgers and company to legs of teasers and parlays. All the while, sharp bettors have sat back and watched as the number to beat raced right past the key number of -3 all the way up to -4.5. The betting public is certainly buying into Green Bay hook, line and sinker after taking down the division rival Bears and Vikings and following it up with another pointspread cover against the Broncos. It almost looks to easy laying the field goal early, right?
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Public – Ravens ( -5 )
Wise Guys – Browns ( +7 )
Even in defeat, the Ravens let it be known they’re a team to be taken seriously after covering the opening spread in Kansas City last week. On the flipside, the Browns have failed to live up to their offseason hype in a big way dropping a pair of home games against the Titans and Rams with the only triumph coming in the form of a less than impressive road win against the New York Jets. With that, public bettors flocked to the Ravens at the opening offering while wise guys sat back and allowed for the steam to hit a key number before getting involved. Though it’s early, this is one of the biggest Pro vs. Joe matchups of Week 4.
Washington vs. New York
Public – Redskins ( +3 )
Wise Guys – Giants ( -1.5 )
Wise guys wasted little time making picks on the Giants this week. They got in right when the number to beat hit the board, and they hit it hard. So hard in fact that linemakers moving the pointspread to -3 attracted enough public bettors to actually throw their hard-earned money on a Washington Redskins team playing on short rest with a lame duck coaching staff calling the shots. Things are looking up in the Big Apple off last week’s thrilling comeback win in Tampa Bay, while the Skins looked destined for another top-three pick in next year’s NFL Draft. The public is selling Danny Dimes while the sharps are buying; things than make you go hmmmm…
Kansas City vs. Detroit
Public – Chiefs ( -6 )
Wise Guys – Detroit ( +7 )
Once again, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be huge liabilities for online sportsbooks on Sunday. That’s been the case every single week of the young season, and that’s not going to change when Andy Reid’s squad invades Motown to run with the undefeated Lions. Detroit was a wise guy pick in Philadelphia last week and cashed in. Sharp bettors look to have no issue rolling those profits into this week when the Lions attempt to hand KC its first loss of the season in a venue the Chiefs haven’t won in since the turn of the century. There isn’t a teaser on the planet that doesn’t include KC right now. If Detroit somehow finds a way to win, it’ll be steak dinners all around for online sportsbooks!
New England vs. Buffalo
Public – Patriots ( -7 )
Wise Guys – Buffalo ( +7 )
This hardly comes as a shock; wise guys are fading the Patriots in their Week 4 trip to New Era Stadium. I’m not exactly sure why since the Bills haven’t been able to protect their house any of the last seven times Bill and Tom paid them a visit. On top of that, Buffalo managed just one pointspread cover during that stretch. But just like they did in Week 2 and 3, sharp bettors are fading the defending champs. They lived to tell about it last week but saw it blow up in their face the week prior in Miami. It will be a catastrophe of epic proportions should both Kansas City and New England each just win their respective games with the amount of money thrown on both teams in teasers! Sharp money knows that and has sided with the home team plus the points because of it.
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