NFL Picks – Week 5 Fade The Public Play

NFL Picks – Week 5 Fade The Public Play

Don’t be a follower, especially when it comes to wagering on the NFL. We touched on a fade play last week and made winners out of those who took the advice in this article. Playing the under in a New Orleans Saints game is risky, but when the total hits the half-century mark, a majority of their recent games have cashed the under. While scoring points is sexy, winners still have to play a little D. The Saints did last week, and cashed the under for total players.

The Dallas Cowboys eked out a win last week and they are getting over 70 percent of the early action at for their matchup with in-state rival Houston this week. Is that the best play of the week? We say no, and we’ll examine the Lone Star State tussle and a few others as our fade the public play picks of the week.

Houston Texans ( -3.5 ) vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Texans haven’t been close to the contender many expected them to be at the beginning of the season, but they are a dangerous team and they got their first win of the season last week. There’s no denying the Texans have the talent and beating the Colts was the nudge they needed to get their season headed in the right direction. Let’s not forget that Deshaun Watson is essentially in the middle of his rookie season and Texans showed flashes of what they were like last season before Watson went down with an injury.

Covering the spread for the first time this season as a 1-point favorite against the Colts, Houston got a gift and turned it into a victory. A loss to the Giants in Week 3 scared some people away from the Texans, but now’s the time to back them with their fortunes changing. And what’s with the Cowboys and over 70 percent of the public backing them early as 3.5-point dogs for this one? The offense is still a big question mark and the secondary has been leaky. Houston has always been a distant second to the Boys when it comes to the NFL in Texas, and getting a chance to beat their rivals down at home is too good to pass up. Fade the Boys and play the Texans minus the points on the NFL betting line at

Pittsburgh Steelers ( -3 ) vs. Atlanta Falcons

The betting public has lost a lot of faith in the Steelers after their rough start. They are 0-2-1 straight up and 0-3 against the NFL betting line when playing as a favorite after losing to the Ravens at home on Sunday night, and they will be spotting the Falcons three points in this Week 5 tilt. But this is the Steelers and with Ben Roethlisberger running the show it’s a good idea to stick with them. There’s a good chance we won’t see Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers have moved on from that. They do have a great bunch of pass catchers and the Falcons defense is a beaten up mess after injuries put several starters on the shelf.

The Falcons have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league with injuries and close defeats and they could easily be 3-1 or 4-0. Instead they are 1-3 SU and ATS and take to the road for the first time since the opener. Both teams can move the football and this should be a shootout, but Atlanta has more questions on defense and that will allow Big Ben and his guys to cover the line putting 90 percent of the betting public in the red for this matchup.

Miami Dolphins ( +6 ) at Cincinnati Bengals

All the work the Dolphins did over the first three games was wiped away with a salty effort last week in New England. The Fins were trounced by the AFC Champs, 38-7, losing for the first time both straight up and ATS. That outcome was predicted by the writer of this article, but I still believe the Fins are one of the most improved teams in the conference.

Adam Gase jettisoned some undesirables to create a better culture in the locker room, and the moves are paying off. The Bengals are another early feel-good story jumping out to a 3-1 SU and ATS mark after the first quarter of the season. Cincy has benefitted from a number of breaks in the early going and those have a way of evening out over the course of a season. Playing at home for the first time in three weeks, the Bengals are getting plenty of love from the public with 80 percent backing the home team. But make no mistake, the Fins are a good club and the 6-points are a bonus that you shouldn’t pass up.

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