The Minnesota Vikings are in the middle of a three-game homestand, but they are licking their wounds after last week’s beatdown at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. Minnesota continues to struggle with teams from the NFC East, yet the Vikes are currently 2-0 against the AFC East with road wins over top teams Buffalo and Miami. They will look to keep it going with a win over the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football.
For the 17th straight year, there will be a Turkey Day tripleheader, and it will be capped off this season by the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings. These teams will meet at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Thursday, November 24, 2022, at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
NFL Week 12 Betting Odds
New England Patriots +3
Minnesota Vikings -3
Total 42
Money Line: Patriots +130, Vikings -150
Odds Analysis
Minnesota opened as a three-point favorite over New England, and we haven’t seen any movement off that key number as of yet. There has been movement with the total though, as the number has dropped from 42.5 to 42.
New England Patriots
Since returning from a high-ankle sprain, Mac Jones has been a statue in the pocket. Jones has been sacked 16 times in New England’s last three games, and he has also really struggled as a passer. Although his numbers last week against the New York Jets look nice at first glance, he finished with a 20.4 QBR since a lot of his completions came on third-and-longs. On the season, Jones is completing 68.7% of his passes for 1,386 yards (7.1 YPA) with four touchdowns and seven interceptions.
New England wants to keep the ball on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris moving the chains with their legs. Stevenson has run for 644 yards (4.5 YPC) and four touchdowns on the year, while Harris has run for 367 yards (4.6 YPC) with three TDs. Unfortunately, the offensive line is really banged up coming into this game with Marcus Cannon and Chasen Hines on injured reserve, and Trent Brown, Isaiah Wynn, and David Andrews all questionable to play.
The Patriots have an elite defense that stood extremely tall in last week’s win over the New York Jets. New England ranks second in total defense (16.9 PPG) and fourth in total defense (302.8 YPG). Matthew Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks, and Deatrich Wise Jr. has 6.5 sacks. The Pats are a big play defense, ranking third in interception rate and second in sack rate.
Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins is coming off his worst game of the season. Cousins was harassed all day by Dallas’ defense last week, and he ended up being sacked seven times on the afternoon. That led to Cousins completing just 12 of 25 passes for 105 yards in a rout. On the year, Cousins is completing 63.4% of his passes for 2,461 yards (6.5 YPA) with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. This passing attack is pretty pedestrian if you take out Justin Jefferson though, and he has 72 receptions for 1,093 yards and four touchdowns.
Dalvin Cook has run for 799 yards and six touchdowns on the season. He is averaging 5.1 YPC as the team’s leading rusher, and he has been much more efficient than Alexander Mattison. If he can have success against New England, that will make things much easier for Cousins.
Minnesota ranks 29th in the NFL in total defense (388.9 YPG). The Vikings have the worst red zone defense in the league, and the secondary has been abysmal allowing 7.6 YPA and 267.3 YPG. Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter have combined for 15.5 sacks, and Harrison Smith leads the team with four interceptions.
Patriots at Vikings Free Pick
The Under is the best bet in this game. Minnesota probably won’t have much success against New England’s defense, and Mac Jones will be unable to exploit the Vikes’ secondary.
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