The Miami Dolphins will be looking for their first win of the season as they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night on NFL Network. The Dolphins didn’t play that well in a Week 1 loss to the Patriots, but Miami had their chances in Week 2 against Buffalo but fell short. On the other side, the Jaguars were thought before the season to be the worst team in the NFL, but they could easily be 2-0. They upset Indianapolis in Week 1 and it took a last minute field goal by Tennessee to beat them in Week 2. The Jaguars are a 3-point home favorite on Thursday with a total of 46.5. Let’s look at the game and NFL picks.
Watch this regular season NFL Week 3 matchup on Thursday, September 24, 2020, at 8:20 p.m. ET from TIAA Bank Field. Catch the game live on the NFL Network and bet on the NFL odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +3 -120
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 +100
Over/Under46.5
Odds Analysis
The betting line for this Week 3 matchup has landed on three. If you like the Dolphins you have to lay -120, while you get even money on Jacksonville. It seems unlikely that the line will come down to 2.5, as rarely do oddsmakers want to get caught on a possible middle around the number of three. The total has been bet up from an opening number of 45 to the current 46.5. Scoring has been up so far this season in the NFL, so it is no surprise to see bettors taking the over.
Injury Report
The Dolphins have one major injury concern of note, as cornerback Brandon Jones is listed as questionable with a groin injury. The Dolphins are also listing Elandon Roberts and Clayton Fejedelem as questionable. Jacksonville doesn’t have any injuries of note beyond players who were already out, although tight end Tyler Davis is questionable.
Matchup to Watch
If the Dolphins are to have a chance to win this game then the defense has to improve. Miami is facing a Jacksonville team that has been very impressive on offense with Gardner Minshew running the show. Miami was expected to show some progress this season under head coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier, but the Dolphins look worse than the team that lost 11 games last season. Flores is supposed to be a defensive coach, but Miami can’t stop anyone. Minshew already has six TD passes this season and now he faces a Miami secondary that is battered and bruised.
“We’re all part of it. We’re all one team and it starts with me,” Flores said to the media about the defense. “We have to play better. We’re not pointing fingers or making excuses. We’ll just work to get it better.”
Game Trends
The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AFC. The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. The Dolphins are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games. The Over is 4-1 in the Dolphins last 5 games as an underdog. The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Free ATS Pick
This is a tough call, as I don’t like laying points with Jacksonville. I know the Dolphins have played poorly on defense, but this line just seems like a trap to me, as the oddsmakers are begging you to take the Jaguars. I know Minshew has been really good, but this is one of those games that just has the red warning sign flashing. I lean to the Dolphins plus the points and I will also take the game to go over the total.
NFL Pick: Dolphins +3 and Over 46.5
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