The Los Angeles Chargers have gritted out two straight wins against other potential AFC playoff teams. That has the Chargers in position to make the postseason, and they have the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Miami Dolphins. They will have the opportunity to help shore up their playoff spot on Monday Night Football this week when they head to the Midwest to take on the Indianapolis Colts.
If recent history is any indication, the Monday Night Football clash between the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts will be a close game. Each of the Chargers’ seven games since their bye week has been decided by one score or less, so expect a back-and-forth affair when these teams meet on Monday, December 26, 2022, at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
NFL Week 16 Betting Odds
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5
Indianapolis Colts +4.5
Total 47
Money Line: Chargers -215, Colts +180
Odds Analysis
Initially, the Los Angeles Chargers were favored by three points in this game. However, the Chargers are now a five-point favorite by the NFL betting odds after it was announced that Nick Foles will be the starting quarterback for the Colts the remainder of the season. That led to the total dropping from 47.5 points to 45.5 points too.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert has been exceptional for the Los Angeles Chargers this season, especially in recent weeks. Herbert has completed 67.5% of his passes for 4,019 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions despite not having Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for much of the season. Allen has 42 receptions for 486 yards and two touchdowns after missing seven games, while Williams has 48 catches for 693 yards and four TDs after missing four games.
Austin Ekeler is an important part of this offense and has been targeted more than anyone else. Ekeler has 95 receptions for 635 yards and five touchdowns, but he hasn’t been very successful in the ground game. He has run for 692 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 4.2 YPC, and that’s why the Chargers run the ball the second fewest times in the league.
The Chargers are in the bottom five in yards per play, surrendering 5.9 YPP on the season. This run defense is awful, allowing 5.3 YPC and 145.6 YPG on the ground too. However, the Chargers have two Pro Bowlers in offseason acquisition Khalil Mack and star safety Derwin James Jr.
Indianapolis Colts
Nick Foles will be the starting quarterback for the rest of the season according to Indianapolis interim head coach Jeff Saturday. Changes had to be made after the Colts blew a 33-0 lead in a loss to Minnesota last week, so it seemed likely that Matt Ryan would be unceremoniously benched. Foles has played in 68 games and famously led Philadelphia to a Super Bowl win over New England in 2018, but this will be his first game under center for the Colts.
Star running back Jonathan Taylor is on injured reserve, and the Colts are missing two offensive linemen up front. That has hurt what was expected to be a great ground game this season. Zack Moss and Deon Jackson will split the carries at running back on Monday, while the two big options in the passing game are Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr.
The Colts are allowing just 5.1 yards per play on defense. This defensive line is solid with DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Yannick Ngakoue, and Kwity Paye up front, but the linebackers have struggled without Shaq Leonard holding things down in the middle of the second level.
Chargers at Colts Free Pick
At this point, it seems likely that Saturday has a mandate to lose in order to help Indianapolis’ draft position. The Colts have dropped seven of their last eight games, and they are very likely to drop their next two tilts.
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