Based on the early 2026 World Cup betting odds, Group F is expected to be among the most competitive and balanced of the 12 quartets. The Netherlands is the favorite to win the group, though strong clubs in Japan and Sweden can also contend. Early World Cup analysis has three teams advancing to the knockout stage. Tunisia is the fourth member of the group and can’t be overlooked after a strong showing in qualifying matches.
Group F is unlikely to produce the overall World Cup winner with odds for any of the four teams to earn the trophy among the longest. But with the teams so close in terms of success and talent, the balanced nature of the group makes it one of the more watchable. The two favorites get group play started when Netherlands and Japan go at it on June 14 in Arlington, TX in a match that could immediately set the tone for the top spot.
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Odds to win Group F
Netherlands -145
Japan +320
Sweden +550
Tunisia +850
With veteran leadership and depth the other teams in the group can’t match, Netherlands is a clear favorite to win the group with an implied probability of around 56 percent. Fresh off a high-profile win over England in March, Japan improved its odds and is considered the closest challenger for first in the group. It was the first time an Asian nation beat England prompting coach Hajime Moriyasu to proclaim, “I want to show the world that we can compete with the best.” With Premier League talent throughout the roster, Sweden is a dangerous team that will battle for advancement to the knockout round.
Odds for Group F teams to win World Cup
Netherlands +2200
Japan +5500
Sweden +13000
Tunisia +65000
Backed by a strong tradition and elite veteran talent, Netherlands boasts the eighth shortest odds among the 48 teams to win the World Cup. The Swedes have to feel good about reaching the World Cup. They finished last in their qualifying group without winning a match. Sweden took advantage of the expanded field winning a playoff under new coach Graham Potter to secure a spot in the field.
Group F Team Previews
Netherlands -145
Netherlands probably doesn’t get the attention on the world stage it deserves. They aren’t France or Spain in terms of depth or brand recognition, but the Netherlands play in every World Cup and has eliminated several World Cup contenders in knockout soccer over several recent tournaments. Virgil van Dijk is the key piece anchoring the midfield. The attack is a concern with the loss of Xavi Simons and recent injuries to Memphis Depay.
Group Match Schedule:
June 14: vs. Japan, 4 p.m. ET, Arlington, US
June 20: vs. Sweden, 1 p.m. ET, Houston, US
June 25: vs. Tunisia, 7 p.m. ET, Kansas City, US
Japan +320
A statement was made in the March window that Japan is a force on the world stage. They beat Scotland, 1-0, in Glasgow and followed that with a 1-0 defeat of England in London. Japan has won four straight international friendlies without conceding a goal. With a high level of confidence entering the World Cup and a history of pulling off group play upsets against world powers like Spain and Germany, the Japanese contingent could easily make a run for the top spot in Group F.
Group Match Schedule:
June 14: vs. Netherlands, 4 p.m. ET, Arlington, US
June 20: vs. Tunisia, 12 a.m. ET, Guadalupe, MX
June 25: vs. Sweden, 7 p.m. ET, Arlington, US
Sweden +550
What Graham Potter did when taking over the program in October was seismic. Sweden was floundering with four losses and two draws in six qualifying matches. They were unable to score a goal in two shocking losses to Kosovo. The Swedes were given a life line and Potter transformed the squad with a pair of wins to earn a spot in the expanded field. Viktor Gyokeres was unleashed in the playoffs scoring four times in two games and along with Alexander Isak they give Sweden a formidable front line.
Group Match Schedule:
June 14: vs. Tunisia, 10 p.m. ET, Guadalupe, MX
June 20: vs. Netherlands, 1 p.m. ET, Houston, US
June 25: vs. Japan, 7 p.m. ET, Arlington, US
Tunisia +850
Competing in a third straight World Cup is a sign Tunisia has embraced the sport at the highest level. The results have yet to match the ambition, though. A group stage upset win over France in 2022 shows the paradox of Tunisian soccer: on a good day they are capable of going toe-to-toe with elite opponents, but they’ve been unable to put three solid matches together.
Group Match Schedule:
June 14: vs. Sweden, 10 p.m. ET, Guadalupe, MX
June 20: vs. Japan, 12 a.m. ET, Guadalupe, MX
June 25: vs. Netherlands, 7 p.m. ET, Kansas City, US
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