The United States is favored to win Group D at the 2026 World Cup, but the pressure of playing at home and poor recent form could derail the hopes of the Americans. Waiting to pounce on a letdown are Turkey, Paraguay and Australia in what is viewed as a competitive and balanced group. Team USA beat Paraguay, 2-1, in a friendly last November and the squads will begin group play on June 12 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.
All four teams in Group D are structurally sound on defense meaning goals could be few and far between. Known for their defense and physical play, Paraguay can make some noise, though they are just the third favorite in the group. Turkey was among the last teams to qualify for the World Cup advancing with a pair of 1-0 wins in the playoffs last month. The group favorites will meet in the final match with Turkey and USA tangling on June 25.
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Odds to win Group D
USA +140
Turkey +190
Paraguay +400
Australia +800
With Turkey qualifying for the World Cup the group looks a lot more competitive than it did beforehand with early odds suggesting that. Turkey placed second in their qualifying group and withstood a tight playoff path with 1-0 wins over Romania and Kosovo. USA closed 2025 with four wins and a draw in its last five matches of the year. However, losses to Belgium and Portugal in March put some doubt on their chances. The Americans have a pair of friendly matches lined up before the World Cup hoping to right the ship and get Christian Pulisic back in form. A key to the hopes of the Americans, Pulisic has struggled offensively in recent matches.
Odds for Group D teams to win World Cup
USA +7000
Turkey +9000
Paraguay +20000
Australia +65000
This is potentially the best scenario for USA to make its longest World Cup run. The roster is experienced and playing on home soil should boost the team’s chances. The Americans have the shortest odds of any team in the group to win the World Cup, which would be quite an accomplishment since they’ve never played past the quarterfinals. And it appears as though new coach Mauricio Pochettino is searching for a structure that fits his roster. Turkey is priced right behind USA and showed it can compete with talent that can beat any of the other group members. Paraguay and Australia are priced as clear outsiders.
Group D Team Previews
USA +140
Several serious injuries forced Pochettino to adjust his lineup and tinker with the system. The midfield was broken when Tyler Adams sustained a severe knee injury and Patrick Agyemang was done with an Achilles tear. Pulisic is the key figure and a return to form will help USA’s chances of emerging atop the group. Pulisic has gone eight games for USA without a goal adding to his struggles since December for AC Milan.
Group Match Schedule:
June 12: vs. Paraguay, 9 p.m. ET, Inglewood, US
June 19: vs. Australia, 3 p.m. ET, Seattle, US
June 25: vs. Turkey, 10 p.m. ET, Inglewood, US
Turkey +190
Ending a 24-year World Cup drought in dramatic fashion has Turkey eyeing a decent run in group play. Infusing young attacking talent with seasoned European veterans has created an interesting dynamic for Turkey. Arda Guler is part of the youth movement serving as the team’s creative spark at just 21 year old. The lineup that qualified through the playoffs has potential, as witnessed by the dramatic wins over Romania and Kosovo. Any breakdown in that structure will expose a lack of depth.
Group Match Schedule:
June 13: vs. Australia, 12 a.m. ET, Vancouver, CN
June 19: vs. Paraguay, 11 p.m. ET, Santa, Clara, US
June 25: vs. USA, 10 p.m. ET, Inglewood, US
Paraguay +400
Already one of the top defensive teams, Paraguay became more structured on the back end following the recent injury to star midfielder Diego Gomez that could potentially force him out of the World Cup. Gustavo Gomez and Omar Alderete anchor the backline that allowed only 10 goals in 18 qualifying matches suffocating opponent’s attacks. The question is whether Paraguay can produce enough offensively to threaten top contenders.
Group Match Schedule:
June 12: vs. USA, 9 p.m. ET, Inglewood, US
June 19: vs. Turkey, 11 p.m. ET, Santa, Clara, US
June 25: vs. Australia, 10 p.m. ET, Santa Clara, US
Australia +800
No stranger to the international stage playing in its sixth straight World Cup this, this version of Australia is arguably the most complete. The back three is one of the most important parts of the club. The trio was disturbed with an injury to Harry Souttar. Being healthy for the World Cup is central to Australia’s defensive hopes with a clear drop in talent to reserves. Nestory Irankunda is key to the attack with an ability to unsettle any defense.
Group Match Schedule:
June 13: vs. Turkey, 12 a.m. ET, Vancouver, CN
June 19: vs. USA, 3 p.m. ET, Seattle, US
June 25: vs. Paraguay, 10 p.m. ET, Santa Clara, US
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