The Wise Guy Picks couldn’t have fared any better last week with all five cashing in on the Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills with two of the four underdog selections winning outright. In this day and age of betting on the NFL, everyone wants to know where the sharp money is and what number they got in at. Most public bettors never get to reap the value as a sharp bettor. Often times, the two are butting heads and the purpose of this piece is to highlight the games of the week where public picks are facing off with wise guy picks at online sportsbooks.
LAST WEEK: 5-0 ATS / YTD 5-0 ATS
Chicago vs. Oakland
Public – Bears ( -5 )
Wise Guys – Raiders ( +6 )
Betting on the Raiders last week turned out to be one of those rare occurrences when both public and sharp bettors were in synergy with one another. After the silver and black went into Lucas Oil Stadium and won outright, it didn’t matter what number either side bought in at; cheers all around! However, the two are once again toeing opposite sides of the line when it comes to this week’s matchup against the Bears in London. Public bettors are all over Khalil Mack running up against his former team, while the wise guys are siding with Jon Gruden for the second straight week. Do you really want to go into battle laying points with Chase Daniel as your QB1?
Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
Public – Ravens ( -3.5 )
Wise Guys – Steelers ( +4 )
The Ravens cost public bettors dearly last week while the sharps cashed in big time with Baker Mayfield and the Browns. Baltimore eating into the bankroll still wasn’t enough to keep public money away from the Ravens in their visit to the Steel City to face a Steelers squad that just tasted the thrill of victory for the first time this season. While it still might be too early to crown the Steelers division champs, there was much to like from the 27-3 beat down of the Bengals on Monday Night Football. Sharp money can’t resist going back for seconds when you pair that with the Steelers dominance of the recent rivalry over the Ravens.
Atlanta vs. Houston
Public – Falcons ( +5 )
Wise Guys – Texans ( -3.5 )
What on god’s green earth are public bettors seeing with the Falcons this week? It’s fallen into quick double-digit holes in all three of its losses, and doesn’t seem to have any idea of what it’s doing on either side of the ball. I get that Houston just lost at home to Carolina, but the Panthers have one of the better defenses the league has to offer at this point in the season. Atlanta doesn’t - not even close! Both Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins were adamant in postgame interviews about having numerous opportunities to succeed, but went on to blame themselves for not being able to do so. If ever there was a defense that duo could make amends against, it’s the Falcons. This has get-well spot written all over it which has wise guys counting down the hours until kick-off.
Indianapolis vs. Kansas City
Public – Colts ( +11 )
Wise Guys – Chiefs ( -9 )
This is a tough one to call with the Colts out to avenge last year’s ugly playoff defeat to the Chiefs, while KC wants to get back in the good graces of its investors. Public bettors are no doubt of the belief Frank Reich’s squad has it in them to do just that. The wise guy picks state otherwise. While Jacoby Brissett has been solid under center for Indianapolis to this point, he’s no Andrew Luck. That said, the former QB1 of the Colts did absolutely nothing in the team’s visit to Arrowhead in January when it mattered most. On top of that, Brissett might be forced to square off against Patrick Mahomes without his most lethal pass catcher suited up with T.Y. Hilton still listed as questionable to play due to that nagging quad injury. I can’t fault the public for betting the Colts past the key number, but they could be playing with fire!
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