The big story in the NFL for the last six months was Tom Brady’s decision to leave New England and come to Tampa Bay. The GOAT won six Super Bowls with the Patriots, but two decades in frozen Foxboro was enough for the 43-year-old quarterback. The Buccaneers became an instant Super Bowl contender after signing Brady, and he has an embarrassment of riches to work with in Bruce Arians’ offense. That has led BookMaker to post odds on the first player to catch a touchdown from TB12 in Tampa Bay this season.
Odds to Catch Tom Brady’s First Passing Touchdown
Rob Gronkowski +290
Mike Evans +300
Chris Godwin +345
Leonard Fournette +500
Ronald Jones +600
OJ Howard +700
Cameron Brate +900
LeSean McCoy +1700
Scotty Miller +2000
Rob Gronkowski has caught twice as many touchdown passes from Tom Brady as the next closest receiver, so it’s no surprise to see him as the favorite on this list even though he is recently unretired and new to Tampa Bay. Gronk caught 78 touchdown passes from the GOAT during their time together in New England, and the four-time All-Pro found the end zone at least ten times in five of his first six seasons. However, he only caught 14 touchdown passes in his last 35 games in New England as injuries caught up to him, so it’s best to avoid him at this price.
A more tempting option is Mike Evans. Evans has established himself as one of the top five receivers in the league, and he is one of the best deep ball targets around. He can use his size and speed to get separation on smaller corners, so if Brady’s first touchdown pass is a bomb, Evans is likely to be on the receiving end. That being said, Brady doesn’t have the same arm strength he did when he was younger at the age of 43.
Chris Godwin is likely to see more passes thrown his way than any other receiver on the Buccaneers in 2020. Godwin was targeted 121 times and caught 86 passes last year, and he is the type of underneath receiver that Brady loves to get the ball to whenever he’s under pressure. That makes him an intriguing option at this price.
The worst bet on the board is Leonard Fournette at 5-1. Fournette didn’t catch a single touchdown pass last year (although he had 76 receptions), and Bruce Arians said the recent signing is currently the backup to Ronald Jones. Tampa Bay is likely to use Fournette as a big bruiser that can move the chains, so he shouldn’t see much action in the passing game. Instead, those touches should go to the more nimble Jones.
Jones was targeted 40 times out of the backfield last year, but he will likely see more swing passes and check downs in 2020. Brady likes to throw a lot of screen passes into the flat to keep defenses off balance, and he proved to be a better option out of the backfield than Dare Ogunbowale. If he is used in a James White type of role, that makes 6-1 a decent bet, but we aren’t quite sure if his role will change this season.
Don’t be surprised if tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate end the season with better stats than Gronk. These are both talented players in their own right, and we don’t know how Gronk will perform given his history with injuries and concussions. That could lead to Arians deciding to practice load management with Gronk early in the season, increasing the likelihood of Howard and Brate making plays.
Brate is a great option at 9-1. He was one of Jameis Winston’s favorite red zone targets, and that should be the case with Brady too. Arians showed an inclination to use him heavily in the red zone, as he benefits from defenses focusing on other options. Brate has 24 touchdown catches over the last four years, and he could have Brady saying, “Make America Brate Again!”
Scotty Miller only caught 13 passes last year, but some think he is a sneaky pick at 20-1. Undersized receivers like Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and Troy Brown were some of Brady’s favorite targets in New England, so Miller has a chance to thrive.
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