Back to back winning weeks on my NFL top total plays has me closer to the breakeven point. While I’m not there yet hitting four of six over the last two weeks has me feeling confident I can put another winning week together, as long as the teams cooperate. The UNDER is trending this season with nearly 60 percent of the games falling below the closing total. There has yet to be a week were more games cashed the OVER.
I’m not an analytics guy but this is something worth noting. So, armed with that information I backed the UNDER in two of three games last week earning a split. Pittsburgh failed to score a touchdown with rookie Kenny Pickett making his first start falling miserably 38-3 in Buffalo. I wisely backed the UNDER on 46 to get a win. And I didn’t expect the Jets to explode for 40 points and nearly go over the total of 45 in their game with Miami. The Dolphins made sure the OVER was a winner by putting up 17 points.
There are teams that can score and we saw two of them on Monday Night Football with Kansas City holding on for a 30-29 win over the Raiders. There’s a history between those clubs and it usually involves scoring so why not back the OVER. It paid off with the teams exceeding the 51 point total. There are so many ways to score it’s mind-boggling the UNDER has prevailed as often as it has. I think the only thing we haven’t seen is a drop-kick, but it’s still early. It’s on to Week 6 of the NFL season as I look to improve my top total plays record.
NFL Week 6 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 6
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
Pick: OVER 43.5
Teams that certainly have the firepower to put up points should do that in the Superdome on Sunday. The Bengals haven’t quite clicked on all cylinders yet and cashing the UNDER in all five games this season and 10 in a row dating back to last season has forced the total to doable number. Turnovers and inconsistency have plagued Joe Burrow, but when he gets it straightened out the Bengals will be dangerous.
Don’t mistake this Saints team with any of the Drew Brees-led outfits of the past. There was a breakthrough on offense last week in the 39-32 win over Seattle with Andy Dalton putting on an efficient if not spectacular show. The return of Alvin Kamara helped and Taysom Hill gives the unit a different look. The defense has allowed an average of nearly two touchdowns in the fourth quarter setting the stage for some late fireworks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: UNDER 44
Kenny Pickett may be the starter of the future for the Steelers, but he’s going to take his lumps getting there. He made his first start last week throwing 52 passes for 327 yards but failed to get his team in the end zone. They were 0-4 in the red zone and have converted just 46.2 percent of the time. They also rank near the bottom in third-down efficiency. Not scoring touchdowns will keep the score low.
Since changing coaches the Bucs have become less reliant on Tom Brady and the offense. They average fewer than 21 points and have scored more than that number just once. Despite their showing last week the Steelers aren’t as bad defensively keeping this number under the total.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: UNDER 45.5
I was a little surprised the total hit the board as high as it did. The Broncos played below the opening total of 45.5 in four of their five games and the UNDER is 4-1. We gave Russell Wilson the benefit of the doubt the first few games, but that grace period is over. Maybe Pete Carroll knew exactly what he was doing when pulling the trigger on the blockbuster deal. It could also be that Denver is a black hole for quarterbacks after Peyton Manning retired.
Denver got some additional time to figure out how to put the ball in the end zone following their Week 5 Thursday night game when they tallied just three field goals. The Broncos have been an underwhelming failure on offense and injuries to several players, including Wilson’s shoulder and season-ender to Javonte Williams, hinders their chances of ending the slump.
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