At the beginning of the season, there was optimism that the Atlanta Falcons would have a breakout season and make the playoffs. But the Falcons rarely overcome their history of ineptitude.
Starting with QB Michael Pennix Jr. being on injured reserve, a cursed franchise is falling short again.
On Thursday night, the Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is trying to maintain its NFC South dynasty and fend off a challenge from the Carolina Panthers.
Namely, Baker Mayfield has been one of the NFL's great turnaround stories. But Tampa Bay is fading fast down the stretch.
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds at Bookmaker
Raymond James Stadium is the venue for the matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday, December 14, 2025. Kickoff time is at 8:15 p.m. ET with television coverage on Prime Video.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as a 5.5-point favorite with the Atlanta Falcons a 5.5-point dog.
The Bucs are a -255 moneyline favorite, with the Falcons at +210.
The Falcons and Bucs opened with an over/under total of 44.5.
Although this is not the ultimate marquee matchup, the Amazon Prime Thursday night games have become a strong draw at the betting window.
Atlanta Falcons
Last game, the Atlanta Falcons lost 37-9 against the Seattle Seahawks as 6.5-point home dogs. The game went over the total of 44. As a result, Atlanta is 4-9 straight up, 5-7-1 against the spread, and 6-6-1 over/under the total.
Atlanta ranks 16th for total offense, 18th for passing, 12th for rushing, 27th for scoring, and 13th for fewest turnovers committed.
Atlanta ranks 14th for total defense, 8th vs. the pass, 25th vs. the rush, 19th for fewest points allowed, and 11th for takeaways.
Atlanta has covered one out of its most recent four games. Atlanta went over the total in four of its last five matchups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost 24-20 against the New Orleans Saints as 7.5-point home favorites. The game went over the total of 41.5. Now, Tampa Bay is 7-6 straight up, 5-8 against the spread, and 7-6 over/under the total.
Overall, Tampa Bay ranks 22nd for total offense, 20th for passing, 20th for rushing, 18th for scoring, and 4th for fewest turnovers committed.
Tampa Bay ranks 21st for total defense, 27th vs. the pass, 8th vs. the rush, 23rd for fewest points allowed, and 6th for takeaways.
Tampa Bay has covered one out of its most recent six games. Tampa Bay went under the total in two of its last three matchups.
Falcons at Buccaneers Betting Trends
Atlanta covered the spread in three of their most recent four road games. Atlanta went over the total in three of those four games.
Tampa Bay covered the spread in only one of its last seven home games. The Bucs went over the total in six of their most recent eight games.
The Falcons covered five of their last seven meetings with the Buccaneers. Three of the last four meetings in this series went over the total.
Specifically at Tampa Bay, Atlanta covered the spread in their last three visits. Two of the last three games between the Falcons and Bucs at Tampa Bay went under the total.
Falcons at Buccaneers Best Bets
The Falcons are a tough sell as a perennial failure.
Gamblers will have to assess whether Atlanta is getting an enhanced price due to its poor brand reputation.
Tampa Bay will get most of the casual sector support as the contending home team. But is the price too high?
As mentioned earlier, all of the trends point favorably to the Falcons.
Of great concern is the Buccaneers' recent lack of value.
Tampa Bay has now shown enough reliability to rate the call here.
Atlanta is fully capable of pulling off the upset.
Main Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under Pick: Under the Total
Player Prop Picks: Baker Mayfield Under the Passing Yards Total
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