At the onset of the 2025 season, nobody had the New England Patriots taking the top AFC seed on their bingo cards.
Yet as the season hits the stretch drive, New England has a real look at claiming that top seed.
The reason for the improvement is head coach Mike Vrabel. The former Patriot linebacker is showing the world what an asset a real head coach can be, as evidenced by the NFL betting odds.
Vrabel is transforming one of the worst franchises in the 2024 campaign.
Also, quarterback Drake Maye has solved New England’s quarterback quandary.
Betting action will be intense for what could be an AFC playoff preview.
Get the latest NFL Week 15 news, check out the current betting lines for the games, and don’t miss the football action, all with the best odds at BookMaker!
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Odds at Bookmaker
Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA, will host the Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots matchup on Sunday, December 14, 2025. Kickoff time is at 1 p.m. ET with television coverage on CBS.
The Buffalo Bills opened as a 1.5-point favorite with the New England Patriots a 1.5-point dog.
The Bills are a -122 moneyline favorite, with the Patriots at +104.
The Bills and Patriots opened with an over/under total of 49.5.
Buffalo Bills
Last game, the Buffalo Bills won 39-34 against the Cincinnati Bengals as 6.5-point home favorites. The game went over the total of 54.5. As a result, Buffalo is 9-4 straight up, 6-7 against the spread, and 6-7 over/under the total.
Buffalo ranks 2nd for total offense, 12th for passing, 1st for rushing, 6th for scoring, and 28th for fewest turnovers committed.
Buffalo ranks 9th for total defense, 3rd vs. the pass, 28th vs. rush, 14th for fewest points allowed, and 15th for takeaways.
Late on, Buffalo has covered two out of its most recent five games. Buffalo went under the total in four of its last six matchups.
New England Patriots
Last game, the New England Patriots won 33-15 against the New York Giants as 7.5-point home favorites. The game went under the total of 46.5. Now, New England is 11-2 straight up, 8-5 against the spread, and 7-6 over/under the total.
Overall, New England ranks 9th for total offense, 2nd for passing, 21st for rushing, 7th for scoring, and 10th for fewest turnovers committed.
New England ranks 6th for total defense, 14th vs. the pass, 3rd vs. rush, 5th for fewest points allowed, and 19th for takeaways.
Late on, New England has covered one out of its most recent three games. New England went under the total in two of its last three matchups.
Bills at Patriots Betting Trends
Buffalo has not been a reliable betting value on the road.
The Bills covered the spread in three of their last eight road tilts.
The Bills went under the total in five of their last six away games.
By contrast, New England has provided good betting value at home.
The Patriots covered the spread in four of their most recent five home games.
New England went over the total in four of their last five home games.
In the series between the Bills and Patriots, New England has held the recent advantage.
The Patriots got the money in five consecutive games against the Bills.
Four of the last six games between Buffalo and New England went over the total.
Specifically in New England, the Bills and Patriots split their most recent six games against the spread.
New England covered the last two games in the series at home.
Only one of the last six games between the Bills and Patriots in New England went under the total.
Bills at Patriots Best Bets
Although the Bills are not meeting expectations, they remain a serious playoff contender.
Buffalo has a long history of credibility with gamblers. Buffalo could be a good value as a quality road team.
New England has been one of the better values in 2025. However, the secret is out on the Patriots, and their profit margin is not what it was in the first two months of the campaign.
New England will carry a surprisingly good price at home.
To conclude, New England has been the more reliable betting value.
As mentioned earlier, the Pats have the more favorable trends.
Main Pick: New England Patriots
Over/Under Pick: Under the Total
Player Prop Picks: Josh Allen Under the Total Yards Total
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