At the beginning of the season there was no hotter brand with the NFL Odds than the Cleveland Browns. However, a few meaningless wins at the end of last season have proven to be fool’s gold. By contrast the Buffalo Bills were at best an afterthought and at worse a team seen by gamblers as “go against” material. The Bills are in prime playoff position while the Browns are on the brink of losing their season. All of a sudden, the gambling public that was so high on the Browns is now looking hard at the Bills. Cleveland hosts Buffalo on Sunday in what could be the ultimate contrarian bet scenario. Let’s take a look at this week’s Wise Guy NFL picks.
We’ll have NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu available for every game of the 2019 NFL season.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns -3, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Buffalo is 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread with the NFL’s third ranked defense. An offense ranked 22nd for scoring remains a concern. Cleveland is 2-6 both straight up and against the spread and has lost four in a row both straight up and against the line. Yet the Browns are 3-point chalks. It seems to make no sense at all. Which of course is why to take Cleveland.
New York Giants -2.5 at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET FOX
This features two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Jets are 1-7 straight up and 2-6 vs. the odds while the Giants are 2-7 straight up and 3-6 on the board. The Giants rank 24th for scoring offense and 29th for points allowed. The Jets are 31st for scoring offense and 25th for points permitted. No team should be favored in this game. Neither team has a coach that anyone else would hire. And there are no signs of life or optimism on either side. Thus, the Jets are the play.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers -5.5, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Carolina is 5-3 both straight up and against the spread while The Packers are 7-2 straight up and 6-3 with the line. Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers have responded well to first year head coach Matt LaFleur. The rookie coach has brought a much-needed fresh voice and approach after the stagnant end of the Mike McCarthy regime. Green Bay opened as a seven-point chalk but was bet down to five after their ugly 26-11 loss at a reeling Los Angeles Chargers team. But at home the Packers remain one of the better bets on the board. Additionally, the Panthers have unimpressive metrics of 22nd in the NFL for total offense and 21st for points allowed. This looks like a good time to fade the public with a Packers team that should rebound from their worst performance of the season.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts -11, 4:05 p.m. ET CBS
This game is a classic case of public overreaction. Miami is coming off its first win of the season against a dreadful Jets team while the Colts lost a heartbreaker at Pittsburgh. Thus, the line was bet down from an open of the Colts -15 down to -11. Yet that does not take away from the fact that the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Miami is 1-7 straight up, 4-4 vs. the odds and has NFL metrics of 30th for scoring offense and dead last for points allowed. The Colts are 5-3 straight up, 4-3-1 against the spread and should have beat the Steelers in a 26-24 loss in which normally clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri missed a game winning field goal at the gun. Look for a strong rebound performance with enhanced betting value here.
Week 10 NFL Wise Guy Picks: Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts
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