One thing about this award is that it takes numbers to win it. And to get the numbers you have to play. Since the 2000 season the Offensive Rookie of the Year award has been won nine times by a running back, seven times by a quarterback and just three times by a receiver. That gives you an idea where the candidates are coming from.
The favorite on the list is obvious. He’s a QB who’s going to play a lot, at least he should since the Cardinals have no one else at the position. And he’s going to a system and coach that wanted him. That’s why Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray is on the board at +213 to win the award. That doesn’t mean he’s going to win it since a running back has taken the honor the last two years. And Alvin Kamara’s win in 2017 was a major surprise. Let’s take a closer look at some of the candidates and their odds at BookMaker.eu.
2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kyler Murray +213
Dwayne Haskins +776
Josh Jacobs +847
Mecole Hardman +1457
David Montgomery +1584
N’Keal Harry +1687
Miles Sanders +1884
Marquise Brown +2107
TJ Hockenson +2107
Deebo Samuel +2107
Drew Lock +2444
AJ Brown +2444
Noah Fant +2444
Daniel Jones +2554
Darrell Henderson +2564
Parris Campbell +2668
DK Metcalf +3011
JJ Arcega-Whiteside +3594
Hakeem Butler +3832
Andy Isabella +4013
Terry McLaurin +4500
Will Grier +5000
Damien Harris +5000
Irv Smith +5000
If it wasn’t for the Arizona Cardinals and their new coach Kliff Kingsbury having the first overall pick in the draft, we probably wouldn’t be talking about Murray as the favorite to win the award. But that’s exactly why he’s at the top of the list. Before he got the gig with the Cards, Kingsbury said he would take Murray with the first pick. Guess what? He got the job and took Murray with the first pick.
Kingsbury had some of the most explosive offensive teams at Texas Tech during his college coaching days working with QBs in the mold of Murray. The system isn’t going to change, but Murray has to have some support around him to be productive enough to claim the honor. There are playmakers around him with the concern being an offensive line that was beat up and just plain bad last year.
Murray’s ability to scramble should offset some of the deficiencies up front and if he can show off his rocket arm there’s a good chance he can sway enough voters his way. That’s a big if, however, with a suspect front and rookie NFL head coach.
The recent success of running backs winning this award bodes well for Josh Jacobs, who carries some value at +847. With Marshawn Lynch no longer around, the Raiders had an opening and Jacobs fits the bill. He’s an every down back who is underrated as a pass catcher. And we saw Saquon Barkley post staggering numbers in the passing game to help his cause last season. Jacobs likely won’t catch over 90 passes, but he will get his share. And running behind a quality offensive line will allow him to put up sizable numbers.
Another running back with a lot of upside is David Montgomery. The Bears invested heavily to draft him and they opened a spot in the backfield by parting with Jordan Howard. Like Murray he’s a system fit and should thrive in Matt Nagy’s creative offensive structure. He has to fight with a few other bodies for playing time, but his ability to run through and around defenders is intriguing. He’s also able to make plays in the passing game, which should help his time on the field.
Dwayne Haskins is the second favorite at +776, but he’s in a situation where he likely won’t be the starter to open the year. The Redskins have a need at quarterback, however, Case Keenum and Colt McCoy will get reps before Haskins. He may take over at some point, but not playing a few games puts him in a hole that is too deep to climb out of.
2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year: Josh Jacobs, RB, Oakland Raiders
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