New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Odds Analysis

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Odds Analysis

Week 7 is set to wrap at MetLife Stadium on Monday Night Football when the New England Patriots and New York Jets collide under the lights in the likely final meeting of the AFC East rivals this season. Gang Green looked resurgent in Sam Darnold’s return to the gridiron in last week’s home win over the Dallas Cowboys. Will his presence be enough to allow for the Jets to be more competitive this time around after dropping a seventh straight decision to the defending champs in Foxborough back in Week 3? See how it all unfolds against the current NFL odds on ESPN at 8:15 p.m. ET.

NFL Odds at

New England -9.5
New York +9.5
Over/Under 43.5

New England vs. New York Odds Analysis

Both teams are getting play from both public and sharp bettors. Though the Patriots are yet to move off the 9.5-point spread the game originally opened at, New England has still received 66 percent of the bet count which could force a line move to double-digits. That said, there is a large contingent of sharp money riding the Jets plus the points. The total has been on the rise since first hitting the board at 42.5 at online sportsbooks. It’s currently up a full point to 43.5 with a whopping 79 percent of the bet count in favor of the line move. These teams played to a high scorer in the first go round, but only did so due to Jets defense logging the only points of the fourth quarter. The over cash snapped a string of six straight unders with an average of 39.5 points scored in those contests.

New England Patriots Odds

The Pats got way more than they bargained for in the first half of last Thursday’s home tilt with the New York Giants. Though Tom Brady went on to throw for 334 yards and complete 76 percent of his passes, he failed to throw a touchdown for the second time this season. He did however make up for it by vulturing a pair of rushing touchdowns away from Sony Michel. New England’s defense and special teams was once again dominant blocking and returning a punt for a touchdown, while also adding a fumble recovery for a score. Each led to New England ultimately covering the closing 16.5-point spread in the 35-14 triumph to move the team to a perfect 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS for the season.

New York Jets Odds

The Jets looked like a completely different team when it took the field late last Sunday afternoon against the Dallas Cowboys. Darnold made all the difference in the world for an offense that was nothing short of laughable with backups Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk navigating the attack. The former USC Trojan ended up completing 23 of his 32 overall passes for 338 yards and a 2:1 TD/INT ratio. His 92-yard scoring strike to Robbie Anderson allowed for the team to take a commanding 14-3 lead deep in the second quarter. While the Jets defense was forced to hold on for dear life as Dak Prescott and company made a valiant charge in the second half, it ultimately ended up doing so to preserve the 24-22 outright win and cover as 7-point home underdogs.

Last Meeting

These teams crossed paths back in Week 3 in a game that had very little positive to come out of it for the Jets. New England more or less went through the motions the first three quarters to take a 30-0 lead with it into the final 15 minutes. Bill Belichick benched all his offensive starters which allowed New York’s defense to pull off a sensational backdoor cover after Arthur Maulet pounced on a fumble in the end zone and Jamal Adams returned an interception 61-yards for the pointspread covering score. The Pats went on to win by a 30-14 final count but failed to cover the closing 20.5-point NFL betting odds. In doing so, New England moved to 9-1 SU but just 4-5-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the under 7-3 during that stretch.

Key Trends

As already mentioned, the Patriots have owned the recent rivalry winning each of the last seven by an average of 19.7 points per game. However, the margin of victory has only seen the champs cover the pointspread three times in those matchups. Last Sunday’s outright win over the Cowboys saw the Jets snap a five game losing streak both SU and ATS when installed a home underdog. It also moved them to just 2-5-1 ATS the last eight times they opposed a +.500 opponent. The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, while the Patriots have managed just one cover in their last six visits to MetLife Stadium.

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