Going back the last 12 seasons, it’s been the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers that’ve ruled the NFC North roost with a sprinkle of the Chicago Bears here and there. The Vikes last won the division title back in 2017 which amounted to the second under the watch of Mike Zimmer who took over the reins in Minneapolis back in 2014. After getting out to a 1-5 start and then dropping three of four to close the regular season out, the Vikings failed to surpass their season win total odds at online sportsbooks in 2021. Of all the NFC North teams entering the regular season, the Vikings look to be the only team on solid ground. Major questions abound with the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, while the Detroit Lions, are well, the Detroit Lions. That has the franchise in a favorable spot to make some noise in 2021-22. Because of it, the betting markets look to be bullish on the Vikes win total with it up to 9 and heavier juice attached to the over. Minnesota has alternated between the over and under each of the last six seasons. Last year was an under, and I’m always one to ride prolonged trends be it good or bad.
Minnesota Vikings Season Win Total: 9 Over -119
A year removed from winning the NFC North and getting destroyed by the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC title game, Minnesota was tagged with a 10-game season win total the following year. It went on to split its 16 regular season games to cash tickets for those that faded them. The following season, the Vikings overachieved posting 10 wins to topple its 9-game win total. Last year, oddsmakers egregiously posted a 9.5 immediately following the conclusion of the Super Bowl. The betting markets immediately pounced lowering it to nine in mid-March and then 8.5 before Week 1 kicked off. While many were bearish on the Vikings last season, that doesn’t look to be the case heading into 2021-22. Minnesota initially hit the board with an 8.5-game win total. While it remains there in some shops, we’ve pushed it up to 9 and continue to take a decent amount of over money. After rooting for Kirk Cousins and company last year, it looks like we’ll be rooting against them living up to expectations this time around.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds at BookMaker
Minnesota Vikings Football Schedule
Week 1: Vikings at Bengals, Sunday, September 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2: Vikings at Cardinals, Sunday, September 19, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 3: Seahawks at Vikings, Sunday, September 26, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 4: Browns at Vikings, Sunday, October 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: Lions at Vikings, Sunday, October 10, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6: Vikings at Panthers, Sunday, October 17, 1 p.m. ET
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: Cowboys at Vikings, Sunday, October 31, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 9: Vikings at Ravens, Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Vikings at Chargers, Monday, November 14, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 11: Packers at Vikings, Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: Vikings at 49ers, Sunday, November 28, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 13: Vikings at Lions, Sunday, December 5, 1 p.m. ET
Week 14: Steelers at Vikings, Thursday, December 9, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Week 15: Vikings at Bears, Monday, December 20, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 16: Rams at Vikings, Sunday, December 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: Vikings at Packers, Sunday, January 2, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 18: Bears at Vikings, Sunday, January 9, 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota Vikings Season Win Total Analysis
There’s a ton to like about the Vikings offense heading into a brand new season. The unit just cemented itself as the league’s 5th best at rushing the pigskin by averaging nearly 143 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. Only Derrick Henry ran for more yards than Dalvin Cook who went for a career-high 1,557 yards on 312 carries through 14 games. Both he and Alexander Mattison are back to tote the rock. The offensive line was retooled in the offseason. Added to the mix were first round draft pick T Christian Darrisaw out of Virginia Tech and fourth rounder G Wyatt Davis from Ohio State. The ability of these two kids catching on quickly will go a long way in allowing Minnesota to become even more dominant in the running game. But it wasn’t just running the football Minnesota excelled at last season. Kirk Cousins went on to throw for 4,265 yards and tossed a career-high 35 touchdown passes. Between Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, the duo combined for 2,325 receiving yards and 21 TD. It looks like newly anointed offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has some high-end toys to play with this season!
Unfortunately, none of its strengths on offense will amount to much of anything unless the Vikings defense gets back to playing the type of ball that saw the franchise win 13 games back in 2017. The stop unit was nothing if not an albatross last season with it allowing all opposition to rack up nearly 395 yards and almost 30 points per game; both outputs ranked No. 27 and No. 29 respectively. With the NFC West, AFC North and standalone games against the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers on the docket, Minnesota must find a way to come up with some stops. The hope is that free agent acquisitions Dalvin Tomlinson, Sheldon Richardson, Patrick Peterson and Xavier Woods pay immediate dividends and turn the unit’s fortunes around.
In taking a quick glance at the upcoming schedule, the Vikings are likely to partake in a number of shootouts. It’ll all kick off Week 1 in that matchup with Joe Burrow and his talented wide receiver corps. The following week at Arizona should see the scoreboard get dented as well. If the defense still hasn’t shown an ability to turn things around by Week 3 at home against the Seahawks, it’ll be tough for Minnesota to qualify for a playoff bid which in turn would likely result in it not surpassing its season win total. Regardless, I’m bullish on this team heading into 2021-22. All the pieces are in place for the offense to rank out as one of the best in the league, and improvements were made on both defense and special teams. Zimmer’s won no less than seven games the seven seasons he’s called the shots for the Vikings, and he’s also produced three double-digit win teams. There’s simply just too much talent on this roster for it not to be a playoff contender provided the injury bug doesn’t throw a wrench in the plans.
Minnesota Vikings Season Win Total Prediction: Over 9
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