After being left for dead following Mac Jones’ injury in their loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, the New England Patriots have roared back to life. They showed a lot of life in their overtime road loss to the Green Bay Packers the following week, and they have throttled their last two opponents. That has New England sitting at 3-3, and the Pats are now in great position to contend in the AFC given their upcoming schedule starting this week against the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.
The New England Patriots can move to over .500 for the first time this season with a win over the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. This game is slated to kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on Monday, October 24, 2022.
NFL Week 7 Betting Odds
Chicago Bears +9
New England Patriots -9
Total 39.5
Money Line: Bears +317, Patriots -400
Odds Analysis
It didn’t take long for the line in this game to move off a key number. The New England Patriots were originally a seven-point favorite over the Chicago Bears, but the number quickly moved to 7.5 shortly after it opened on Sunday night. The total has shifted between 39.5 and 40 over the course of the week, as this should be a relatively low scoring game.
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields has been unable to move the ball effectively in this offense. Chicago gave Fields no help at the receiver position this offseason, and that’s why the Bears have the worst passing game in the league. They are averaging just 122.8 YPG through the air, and Fields has been sacked once every six drop backs. Additionally, he has thrown five interceptions in 115 passes, so Chicago ranks dead last in interception rate too.
Chicago runs the ball more often than any other team in the NFL. The Bears have had a surprising amount of success on the ground given how one-dimensional their offense has been this year, as they are averaging 5.2 YPC and 170.8 YPG on the ground. Khalil Herbert has been pretty explosive, while David Montgomery has been reliable between the tackles. Fields has taken off more too this year, helping this offense move the chains at least a little bit. Still, this offense ranks 31st in scoring offense and 28th in total offense.
The Bears have been susceptible to the run themselves. They are allowing 4.8 YPC and 163.0 YPG on the ground as this front seven isn’t as strong as it was last year. This is a strong young secondary though. Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon are talented rookies, and Eddie Jackson is a solid veteran.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones may be able to return to action this week. Jones suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3, and he has missed the last three weeks recovering from the injury. Rookie Bailey Zappe has started in his stead, and while Zappe has played well, he is not as talented as Jones. The return of Jones would help this passing game, as Zappe hasn’t been asked to stretch the field much.
Bill Belichick is back to basics with New England. Belichick built his dynasty on the strengths of a great defense and a solid run game, and both of those attributes are in the DNA of this year’s team. Rhamondre Stevenson has run for 448 yards and three touchdowns and is averaging 5.1 YPC, and Damien Harris isn’t far behind him. This offensive line has two solid tackles in Trent Brown and Isaiah Wynn, and the unit has some depth too.
New England’s defense is better than the numbers might suggest this season. The Patriots have faced some good offenses early in the season, and this is likely to be a top eight unit by the end of the year. Deatrich Wise Jr. and Matthew Judon have been excellent pass rushers, and this secondary has not missed J.C. Jackson to the degree that many expected.
Bears at Patriots Free Pick
This is going to be a rout. New England is locked in right now, and Chicago is the type of team that Belichick has dominated over the course of his career. The Bears are going to lose by double digits in a game that’s never close.
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