Since representing the NFC in Super Bowl LI and putting forth one of the more memorable choke jobs in recent history allowing New England to come all the way back to win in overtime, it’s been nothing but a steep downward progression for the Atlanta Falcons. Though it surprisingly qualified for the postseason the following year, Atlanta has amassed a grand total of 18 wins over the last three seasons. After finishing last in the NFC South for the first time since 2007 and logging its lowest win total since 2013, upper management had enough of watching the team piss away numerous fourth quarter leads and decided to make wholesale changes by overhauling the entire coaching staff and GM. Out is Dan Quinn/Thomas Dimitroff and in is Arthur Smith/Terry Fontenot. Heck, they even traded Julio Jones to the Titans for draft picks! While some nice pieces still remain on the roster – especially from a fantasy viewpoint - Atlanta looks to be headed towards a rebuild regardless of the fact that online sportsbooks expect a near breakeven campaign with its win total odds clocking in at 7.5. Personally, I’m bearish on the Falcons making any noise within the division and expect another losing season to ultimately play out.
Atlanta Falcons Season Win Total: 7.5 Over -138
Offensively, the Falcons still boast an impressive roster with Matt Ryan under center and Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage his primary wide receiver targets. Added to the mix in free agency and the draft respectively were RB Mike Davis and rookie TE/WR Kyle Pitts. Unfortunately, the offensive line remains a major cause for concern with the folks over at Pro Football Focus ranking the unit No. 23 out of 32 teams heading into the regular season. The primary issue resides on the defensive side of the ball with the stop unit ranking out dead last against the pass after serving up nearly 295 yards per game. While moves were made to shore the secondary up in the offseason, it remains to be seen if they’ll pay-off or not. For one reason or another, the betting markets look to be bullish on Atlanta surpassing its win total with heavier juice currently attached to the high side of the impost.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds at BookMaker
Atlanta Falcons Football Schedule
Week 1: Eagles at Falcons, Sunday, September 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2: Falcons at Buccaneers, Sunday, September 19, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 3: Falcons at Giants, Sunday, September 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: Washington at Falcons, Sunday, October 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: Jets vs. Falcons, Sunday, October 10, 8:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
Week 6: Bye Week
Week 7: Falcons at Dolphins, Sunday, October 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 8: Panthers at Falcons, Sunday, October 31, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9: Falcons at Saints, Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Falcons at Cowboys, Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: Patriots at Falcons, Thursday, November 18, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Week 12: Falcons at Jaguars, Sunday, November 28, 1 p.m. ET
Week 13: Buccaneers at Falcons, Sunday, December 5, 1 p.m. ET
Week 14: Falcons at Panthers, Sunday, December 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 15: Falcons at 49ers, Sunday, December 19, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 16: Lions at Falcons, Sunday, December 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: Falcons at Bills, Sunday, January 2, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: Saints at Falcons, Sunday, January 9, 1 p.m. ET
Atlanta Falcons Win Total Analysis
Teams currently sporting 7/7.5 game win totals include the division rival Panthers, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants. Save for the Raiders, each of the other three teams have defenses that are either established as one of the best in the game (Chicago) or on the up and up (Carolina, New York). The same can’t and won’t be said of the Falcons who’ve stunk the joint up terribly for a multitude of seasons now and will need time for all the new faces to get on the same page with one another. While the switch could ultimately flip deeper into the season, the schedule likely won’t allow for many wins to be accrued regardless. I don’t like the pass defenses chances of showing improvement against the powerhouse passing attacks of the Buccaneers, Saints, Cowboys or Bills. It could even have issues containing the Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots and Jaguars who dramatically improved their respective passing attacks in the offseason. The offense likely won’t have much fun running up against the stout defenses of the Bucs, Washington Football Team, Fins, and Pats either.
Sharp Football Stats has the Falcons schedule strength ranked in the middle of the pack. Along with matchups against the NFC south, NFC East and AFC East, the Falcons will also partake in standalone games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions. I believe the schedule to be a shade tougher than No. 15 and am having a tough time singling out a single game that will be a sure-fire win. I faded the Falcons last season and ended up cashing a ticket on the under. Even with a new coaching staff and GM in place, I expect it to take more time before they get the players desired to run the system as they say fit. With that, I’ll take a stab at the under once again and hope the Falcons continue to fall in a majority of their coin flip games.
Atlanta Falcons Season Win Total Prediction: Under 7.5
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