The Stanford Cardinal has been the class of the Pac-12 North since the league expanded, and the expectation remains the same heading into 2018. With another legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in Bryce Love leading the offense, the Cardinal is looking for its fifth division title in eight years. But they better not overlook the San Diego State Aztecs, who won last year’s meeting and should contend for the Mountain West title. The West Coast powers kick off Week 1 on Friday night.
This contest in Week 1 will go down Friday, August 31, 2018 at 9 p.m. ET at Stanford Stadium. The game will air live on FS1.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego State +14.5
Stanford -14.5
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
It’s easy to overlook the Group of 5 teams when matched head-to-head with a Power 5 school. San Diego State has been one of the better G5 programs, winning at least 10 games in three straight years and the Aztecs knocked off Arizona State last year as well. Money is evenly wagered on the line, so the spread appears to be right on. The teams are strong defensively and the under is getting action on an opening total of 49.
Player to Watch
Love is definitely the guy to keep an eye on for Stanford. He rushed for 2,118 yards last season, the second-best total in Pac-12 history, and averaged 8.1 yards per carry. He also ran for 19 touchdowns and had at least one in 12 of 13 games. Four starters from an offensive line that opened gaping holes are back and the offense has the potential to be just as lethal.
Foregoing the NFL draft to return for his senior season, Love is a favorite to break Stanford’s streak of Heisman runner-ups. He rushed for over 100 yards in 12 of the 13 games he played in 2017 and amassed 301 against Arizona State. He also had 263 to beat UCLA. In last year’s meeting with the Aztecs, Love totaled 184 yards on 13 carries with a pair of touchdowns.
Letdown Spot
It’s quite possible the Cardinal have a minor letdown right out of the gate. With a game the following week against conference rival USC, the matchup against the Aztecs doesn’t seem all that important. But it is the season opener for the 13th-ranked Cardinal, and they can’t afford a disaster like last season.
San Diego State might not seem as formidable without Rashaad Penny toting the rock, but the Cardinal can ill afford to overlook the Aztecs. And knocking off a Power 5 teams is always a feather in the cap for the G5 clubs. Stanford was throttled twice by USC last season, including their first loss in the Pac-12 championship. Worrying about the Trojans would be a huge mistake, especially against an underrated San Diego State club.
Matchup to Watch
The Aztecs did little to stop Love last season, allowing him to run for 184 yards and a pair of scores. Yet, SDSU was able to do everything else to get the win. The Aztecs couldn’t stop Love but they did get stops on former QB Keller Chryst, who committed three turnovers. Chryst lost his starting job later in the season to K.J. Costello and transferred during the summer.
Stanford will look to the running game behind a line that returns four starters. The group punished San Diego State up front last season, allowing Love to snap of scoring runs of 51 and 53 yards, with another long scamper setting up a field goal. The job of trying to slow down Love will fall to Noble Hall and Chibu Onyeukwu, two monsters up front. The linebackers are led by Ronley Lakalaka and Kyahva Tezino. They likely won’t stop Love, but limiting his big play ability will go a long way toward pulling off the upset for a second straight season.
Free ATS Pick
David Shaw was kicking himself last season for not having his team prepared. You can bet that won’t happen again. And the Cardinal players that were around last season will certainly remember the loss. Even with a game against USC next on the schedule, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinal looking past the Aztecs in this one.
While San Diego State is a top squad in the Mountain West, they will slip a bit this year without Penny. The running game isn’t as potent and they don’t move the ball through the air, giving plenty of value to the under. I think the Aztecs can cover the spread, but they don’t have the firepower to come from behind, and the Cardinal have their sights on revenge.
College Football Odds: Stanford 31, San Diego State 21
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