We have a matchup of near misses in the Fiesta Bowl when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish takes on the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Both squads were in the CFP picture until the final weeks of the regular season. The Cowboys had their hopes dashed by Baylor in the Big 12 title game while the Irish’s lack of a conference affiliation and a loss to Cincinnati impacted their chances. Nonetheless it is an intriguing New Year’s Six contest with Marcus Freeman making his debut as Notre Dame’s new head coach. His club is positioned as a slight 1.5-point favorite on the college football betting line.
The 2022 Fiesta Bowl is slated for Saturday, January 1, at 1 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. The game will air on ESPN.
College Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -1.5
Total 44.5
Odds Analysis
With so much time between when the odds hit the board and when the games are played we’re going to see movement. The Irish were listed as a 2.5-point favorite on the opener with that number dropping to ND -1.5 as of this writing. Meanwhile, the total has remained steady at 44.5. Notre Dame will debut a new coach following the departure of Brian Kelly, which may have had something to do with the spread, but not much should change since Freeman was hired from within. And both clubs are in strange territory with the line being where it is. The Cowboys are catching points for the first time since Week 8 and they are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games. The Irish were favored by at least nine points in each of their last four games and have a 7-game ATS winning streak going.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame was the first team out of the CFP, according to the final rankings, so that stings. The Irish needed some things to fall their way over the last few weeks of the season and they didn’t. The loss to Cincinnati back in Week 5 didn’t help since the Bearcats went undefeated. That was the only blemish on their record and they finished strong winning seven in a row while going 7-0 ATS. But the biggest concern for Notre Dame is how the departure of Kelly affects the team. The school moved quickly to fill the position naming defensive coordinator Freeman as the successor, but moving to the big headset is always a challenge when performing under a microscope.
The Irish had a balanced attack on offense with Jack Coan throwing for 2,641 yards and Kyren Williams rushing for over 1,000 yards. Notre Dame averaged over 415 yards per game and beat up on lesser teams to score 35.3 points a contest. Williams opted out of the game leaving a void in the ground game. Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs will handle the chores on Saturday. Defensively the Irish had the fourth-best red zone touchdown percentage at 36.8, which allowed them to rank 10th nationally in points per game allowed.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
We don’t always think of defense when talking about the Big 12, but Oklahoma State did a great job this season of changing the narrative. Eight times the Cowboys held opponents to 20 points or less finishing eighth nationally allowing an average of 16.8 points. They also ranked third in total yards allowed and fifth against the run while amassing the most sacks in the FBS with 54. It will be interesting to see if OSU can continue playing at an elite level now that coordinator Jim Knowles is no longer around. He left for Ohio State a few weeks ago leaving a void in the Big 12’s best stop unit.
Getting Jaylen Warren will be a boost for the offense. He missed the Big 12 title game due to injuries and the Cowboys suffered. Without a run game it was up to Spencer Sanders to make things happen and he did ... for Baylor by throwing four interceptions. Warren rushed for over 100 yards five times totaling 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns. If he’s back and healthy he’ll take some pressure of Sanders and will keep Notre Dame’s defense honest. Ultimately, though, the defense needs to play like it has all season and the Cowboys have to eliminate the mistakes.
Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State Prediction
A 3-point loss to Iowa State in the regular season and a 5-point setback to Baylor in the Big 12 championship is all that separates the Pokes from an undefeated campaign and a CFP berth. I think they’ve been undervalued all season and they look like a good buy catching points in this game. Notre Dame will have a tough time moving the football and as long as Sanders doesn’t turn it over I like OSU’s chances for the outright.
BookMaker Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 / UNDER 44.5
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