Following wise guys isn’t always easy since it’s tough to figure out their methods. Watching the lines and spreads, and following the money will give you an idea of what the goofy bastards are up to. As we near the mid-point in the 2019 college football season you’d notice a definite bulge in your bankroll if you’ve been following wise guy plays. They don’t always get em right, but they are winners more times than not.
Unfortunately, there was a breakdown last week on some of the games we monitored where sharp action affected the early numbers. We didn’t get the offensive production in the SEC tilt between Auburn and Florida, thus the wise guys pounding the over was a loser. My head-scratcher last week was the Oklahoma-Kansas matchup. It sure looked as though sharps were backing the Jayhawks at +34.5 and it turned profitable in the end with KU covering in the 45-20 loss. Unlike some fake news outlets, you don’t always have to be first. Patience is a virtue, as they say, and sometimes it pays off on the betting line. UNLV was +21 at one point for its matchup with Boise State. Had you waited and bought at the closing number +25 you would have pushed. It wasn’t a loss, and isn’t that what we want when placing a wager?
Week 7 promises to be another exciting time on the gridiron and at the betting window so let’s take a look at a few college football games on the schedule and see what wise guys are up to. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS contest. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to place your bet.
Week 7 Wise Guy Picks
Virginia at Miami ( -2.5 )
When you bet is just as important as who you bet, and this ACC Coastal clash is a prime example. The spread is always changing based on how much action and which team is getting it. The line opened Miami -1 and has bounced around, even jumping the fence in favor of the Hoos briefly. Virginia is getting over 60 percent of public backing and you would expect the number to keep climbing in favor of the Cavs. Instead if jumped back in favor of the Canes and has steadily climbed to Miami -2.5.
Just like the Kansas-Oklahoma game last week, this line perplexes me. Miami has struggled in the first year of the Manny Diaz era. They don’t have a quarterback after making another switch last week and they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Yet they are getting sharp action against a good Virginia team that showed some cracks in a loss to Notre Dame last time out.
Memphis ( -5.5 ) at Temple
This matchup has wise guy fingerprints all over it. First, the line moved opposite the public. Second, it moved off a key number. Temple opened +3 on the college football betting line and that was good enough for nearly 60 percent of the public to back the Owls, who have Power 5 wins this season over Maryland and Georgia Tech. This is a solid team that plays stingy defense and is efficient on offense. That upset loss to Buffalo a few weeks ago when wise guys were backing them will haunt the Owls this week.
So, with Temple getting a field goal and public support for this home tilt, the line jumped to Memphis -5 thanks to wise guys. The Tigers are a good club, too, with a win over Ole Miss in the opener and four more after that. They can score and play some D of their own, and sharps remember that Temple crash a few weeks ago.
Florida at LSU ( -13 )
This might be the game of the year, at least until the next SEC contest between ranked teams. Heavyweight battles between undefeated teams always garner attention. Put them in the top-10 and in the same conference and things get a little more interesting with wise guys paying close attention. LSU opened as a 14-point home favorite, which was to the liking of a lot of folks. Close to 70 percent of the action is on the Tigers and the spread came down a point.
That’s not a huge drop, but when you consider the teams involved it could easily be the equivalent of four or five points. LSU has taken to the new offensive approach leading the nation in scoring while averaging over 571 yards per game with Heisman front-runner Joe Burrow at the helm. LSU has yet to face a defense as fast and athletic as Florida’s and sharps are counting on that group slowing down the Tigers attack.
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