A pair of undisputed champions square off in Las Vegas when super middleweight Saul “Canelo” Alvarez entertains junior middleweight Jermell Charlo in a scheduled 12-round bout. One of the most accomplished boxers of his generation, Alvarez has won multiple championships in four different weight classes and welcomes Charlo to the 168-pound division for the first time as a big -415 favorite on the early boxing betting line.
With just one loss on his resume, Charlo is a formidable opponent. However, it’s never easy making the leap to another weight class against bigger, stronger fighters. In a battle for the undisputed junior middleweight titles in 2021, Charlo and Brian Castano fought to a split draw. In the rematch 10 months later Charlo made sure the judges didn’t play a part in the decision scoring a 10th round KO. A fight against top contender Tim Tszyu never materialized and with Charlo set to move up a class, he’ll surrender his WBO belt. That doesn’t seem to bother Charlo, who opened as a +327 underdog.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Betting Odds
Canelo Alvarez -415
Jermell Charlo +327
The 12-round bout between super middleweight champ Saul “Canelo” Alvarez ( 59-2-2, 39 KOs ) and junior middleweight belt holder Jermell Charlo ( 35-1-1, 19 KOs ) for the undisputed super middleweight title will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday, September 30, 2023 and will air on Showtime pay-per-view.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Fight Preview
Just a few fights ago Alvarez experienced the difficulties when moving up weight classes. He suffered just his second career loss dropping a unanimous decision to Dimitry Bivol for the WBA super light heavyweight title. And that’s a class Alvarez previously held the belt in after an 11th round KO of Sergey Kovalev in 2019 earned him another division title.
Some predicted the end Alvarez’s reign as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters when his streak of 16 fights without a loss ended to Bivol. The only other loss on the resume of Alvarez was a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather Jr. back in 2013. Alvarez has 63 fights on his documented record but he’s just 33. A standout amateur, it was tough for him to find suitable opponents so at the age of 15 he turned pro.
With a lot of mileage on that frame, Alvarez admitted that he wasn’t at his best the last two fights. The first of those was against Gennady Golovkin one year ago. A rematch with Bivol never materialized setting the stage for a third confrontation with GGG. This was another case of a fighter advancing weight classes with the outcome not favorable. Golovkin fought as a super middleweight for the first time with Alvarez scoring a unanimous decision.
A second undisputed title defense took place in May with Alvarez scoring a dominant UD over WBO interim champ John Ryder. Despite his last three fights going the distance, Alvarez still maintains a 66 percent KO-to-win ratio.
It would be easy for Charlo to be intimidated when looking at his opponent’s record and accomplishments. And moving up from the 154- to 168-pound weight class to face one of the best fighters is a big step. A strong puncher, each of Charlo’s last four wins came by KO, most recently in a rematch with Castano to unify the light middleweight class. Charlo is a solid fighter and I think he’s undervalued because of the jump in weight class.
Bet Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo
At more than 4/1 I wouldn’t bet on Alvarez outright. For more value you need get more specific with the over/under for rounds set at 10.5. This is a fight where backing the underdog clearly makes a lot of sense. Charlo wouldn’t make the jump in weight class, especially to take on someone like Alvarez, if he wasn’t confident in his ability. Charlo tosses haymakers with the best of them and has a granite chin as well. The power will carry over making this a closer fight than most expect. However, I do like Alvarez to reign supreme with the bout going the distance.
Boxing Odds Pick: Canelo Alvarez / Decision
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