It’s time to revisit our futures odds portfolio for the upcoming NCAA Tournament one last time with the First Four and Field of 64 etched in stone. Now that we know every potential path each and every team would have to take in order to cut down the nets, things get a bit clearer. More importantly, value spots surface with some of the top seeds being forced to run up against a number of hellacious opponents (Michigan), while others have what looks to be a much easier time of it (Gonzaga). Though we don’t know the end results of any of these games, the bracket still gives us the opportunity to map out potential obstacles and clear paths. All that has to be done then is to pair those hypothetical paths up with the current odds offered at online sportsbooks to see if any value lies in the number. The following are three underpriced teams that I’ll be adding to my March Madness futures odds portfolio in hopes of making this year’s installment of March Madness even more exciting than it already is.
Odds to Win NCAA Tournament
Gonzaga +186
Baylor +605
Illinois +535
Michigan +805
Houston +1451
Iowa +1756
Alabama +1850
Ohio State +2101
Texas +2602
Oklahoma St +3781
Florida St +3477
West Virginia +4000
Texas Tech +4650
Arkansas +5300
Virginia +5500
UConn +4000
San Diego St +5000
Tennessee +5300
Kansas/Purdue +6000
USC +6500
North Carolina +7000
Creighton/Wisconsin/Colorado +7500
Villanova/Oregon +8000
Michigan St +9000
LSU +9500
Georgia Tech 130-1
BYU 140-1
Florida 175-1
Maryland 170-1
Missouri 180-1
Oklahoma/Rutgers/Syracuse 160-1
Georgetown 195-1
Clemson/UCLA 210-1
Virginia Tech 220-1
St. Bonaventure 125-1
Winthrop 275-1
Utah St 325-1
Oregon State/VCU 400-1
Wichita St 450-1
Drake 500-1
UCSB 700-1
Ohio 750-1
North Texas 1000-1
UNC Greensboro/Colgate/Abilene Christian/E Washington 1500-1
Liberty/Morehead St/Cleveland St 1800-1
Grand Canyon 2000-1
Iona/Oral Roberts/Drexel 2500-1
Hartford/Norfolk St/App St/TX Southern/Mt. St. Mary’s 5000-1
West Virginia +4000
Heading into a home game against Oklahoma State in the regular season finale, the Mountaineers offered up a 25-1 return on investment. After dropping that matchup with the Cowboys and then getting ousted by Cade Cunningham and company in the Big 12 Tournament, WVU’s rate of return has blossomed to 40-1. What piques my interest most about Huggy Bear’s squad is that it still earned the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region and with it a much easier path than that of No. 4 seed OK-State with the top half of the bracket scary as all hell. WVU opens with Morehead State and would then get either San Diego State or Syracuse; a pair of teams Miles McBride and company could and should topple.
With the generous seed and region placement, the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight are in clear view for a team that likely didn’t deserve the generosity from the selection committee after dropping three of its last four games. Because of it, the Mountaineers clock in at -118 to qualify for the Sweet Sixteen and +350 to reach the Elite Eight. For comparison’s sake, OKST checks in at +145 and +400 respectively. If deciding between which Big 12 rep to back on the futures odds right now, the value clearly lies with West Virginia who has the roster makeup, shooting touch and easier path to dramatically defy marketplace expectations.
Purdue +6500
The Boilers tough to stomach overtime loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten Tournament really added some value to the team’s return on investment heading into their first round matchup against a North Texas team it should be able to dominate. Heading into that game against the Buckeyes, Matt Painter’s troops offered up a decent 35-1 rate of return after rattling off wins and pointspread covers at online sportsbooks against their previous five opponents. But since suffering the 87-78 overtime defeat, the Boilermakers odds of cutting the nets down in April nearly doubled to 65-1! I’ve already laid the points with PU against the Mean Green, so I fully expect them to advance into the second round. Up next would either be wounded Villanova or a Winthrop team coming off the biggest win in program history. It would be a huge step up in class for the Eagles which should smash Cinderella’s slipper.
Baylor is the expected Sweet 16 opponent from there, but I have my doubts. It wouldn’t shock me if ‘ol Roy’s Tar Heels found a way to take the No. 1 seed down. Either way, PU’s above average perimeter defense and beef down low in Trevion Williams and Zach Edey would give both the Bears and/or UNC major headaches. Purdue is near even money to reach the Sweet Sixteen and a +550 choice to qualify for the Elite Eight. With PU getting the added advantage of playing each and every one of these games in their own backyard, the Boilers are just oozing with futures odds value!
Drake +50000
I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know much about the Drake Bulldogs save for the fact that they covered each of their first 13 regular season games. That however occurred with both Roman Penn and ShanQuan Hemphill healthy and in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, the former won’t be partaking in their First Four matchup against what I believe to be a highly overrated Wichita State team. However, it’s looking like the latter will be ready to give it a go after missing the last month.
Everyone seems to be enamored with Loyola Chicago out of the Missouri Valley, but the Ramblers path to the Final Four looks to be much tougher than their conference rival’s. One of these lesser known schools is going to make a run in this tournament, so why not the Bulldogs? If in fact Hemphill is 100 percent healthy and he doesn’t skip a beat, the Bulldogs will have one of the nation’s best big men back in the lineup with more tread on the tires. With a 500-1 return, no more than a beer money investment is suggested. But why not take a shot with one of these play-in teams who have displayed the grit and determination needed to make runs like VCU, Syracuse and LaSalle have done in year’s past?
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