Two teams desperately trying to avoid relegation will square off in ESPN’s nationally televised Serie A Game of the Week when Frosinone hosts Empoli. This is Frosinone’s second season ever in Serie A and they are trying to avoid the immediate relegation that befell them the first time around. Empoli have spent more time in Serie A over their history than Frosinone, but both clubs only won promotion back to Italy’s top league last year.
Don't miss the Italian Serie A action from Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone, Italy at 6:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, October 21, 2018. Catch every moment of the match live on ESPN2.
Italian Serie A Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Empoli +146
Frosinone +191
Draw +223
Over/Under 2.5
Odds Analysis
Frosinone have the worst record in Serie A through the first eight games of the season. They are 0-1-7, and they are dead last in the league in most major categories. They have fewer goals (3) than any other team in Serie A, and they have allowed more goals (21), than any other team in the league as well. Frosinone’s lone result was a 0-0 draw with Bologna, and the club failed to score a goal until its seventh game of the year. The lone bit of good news for Frosinone is that their attack has finally shown signs of life recently with all three goals coming in their last two matches.
If you want to be an optimist, you can somewhat excuse Empoli’s poor start. They have played some of the most surprising teams in Italy, and they have played other top teams too. They did get off to a nice start with a win over Cagliari, and their fans have to be happy with a draw against AC Milan too. Empoli are just one point away from being clear of the relegation zone, so they are going to push for the full three points in this match.
Injury Report
Both sides have a number of injuries to note prior to kickoff. For Empoli, defender Lorenzo Polvani is out for the year after tearing his ACL in the first match of the year. Forward Alejandro Rodriguez continues to recover from an ACL injury he suffered in April, but he could return soon. Defenders Freddie Veseli and Luca Antonelli are listed as questionable, while captain Manuel Pasqual is probable.
Frosinone are still without two of their forwards until early 2019. Luca Paganini and Federico Dionisi both went down with ACL tears over the summer, and it will take some time for both to come back. Midfielder Emil Hallfredsson is questionable to play in this one, and so is defender Luka Krajnc. Defender Marco Capuano is probable.
Matchup to Watch
Empoli have a pair of center backs that are both in their late 30s. Pasqual and Domenico Maietta are both 36, and they have had problems in space. Maietta bloomed late, finally cracking into Serie A in his 30s and is known for his physicality. As for Pasqual, he was a mainstay in the back for Fiorentina for more than a decade, and he is known as a deadball specialist. There’s a good chance he will create Empoli’s offense from the back in this one.
Many teams can take advantage of their age, but Frosinone might not be able to. They have had a really hard time finding the back of the net, and that may cost them from picking up points.
Serie A Prop Bet – Will Both Teams Score? No -103
The conventional wisdom might lead you to believe that games between bottom tier teams are higher scoring because both teams want to play more open, but the evidence doesn’t bear that out. In fact, games between teams in the relegation zone tend to be slogs as each side is desperate to secure needed points and is very reticent to push too much and expose itself on the counter. I see this being a 0-0 or 1-0 type of game, so I’ll bet on one of these teams to pitch a clean sheet.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
In addition to the prop bet, I like the under in this one. For the aforementioned reasons, I don’t expect more than two goals to be scored here.
Italian Serie A Odds: Empoli 1, Frosinone 0
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