MLS Cup Preview

By  Jonathan Willis

Thursday, October 10th, 2019

MLS Cup Preview

The path to the 2019 MLS Cup will run through Los Angeles. Los Angeles FC won the Supporters’ Shield this year, and they set records in the process. LAFC tallied more points than any team in MLS history, finishing the year with 72 points thanks to a 21-4-9 record.

However, LAFC are not as indomitable as previously imagined. This club looked set to smash multiple domestic records this year, but they went 2-5-1 in their last eight games, showing they are indeed vulnerable. They are sizable favorites per the MLS Cup betting odds, yet the poor run at the end of the season gives others hope.

MLS Cup Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu

Los Angeles FC +150

New York City FC +400

Atlanta United +1000

Seattle Sounders +1200

Philadelphia Union +1200

Minnesota United +1600

Los Angeles Galaxy +2000

New York Red Bulls +2000

New England Revolution +2500

Toronto FC +2500

DC United +2500

Real Salt Lake +2500

Portland Timbers +3500

FC Dallas +4000

LAFC had one of the most prolific offenses we have seen in the history of the league. Carlos Vela smashed Josef Martinez’s single-season scoring record he set just last year by tallying 34 goals in 31 matches, and his 15 assists were the third-most in the MLS. Vela, Diego Rossi, and Adama Diomande form the deadliest trio in the league. Only one team (NYCFC) scored more total goals than the 58 combined goals those three scored this season.

A major change in the MLS Cup playoff format will benefit LAFC. The No. 1 seed in each conference receives an automatic spot in the conference semifinals, and there are no more two-legged ties in the knockout rounds. The lower-seeded team will host every game, meaning that LAFC only needs to win three home games to claim an MLS Cup in the second season of the club’s existence.

New York City FC were the top team in the Eastern Conference, and the path to the MLS Cup Final runs through them on that side of the bracket. They have the best playmaker in the league in Maxi Moralez, and the addition of Heber in the middle of the season paid off handsomely as the Brazilian scored 15 times in 22 games. NYCFC will face the winner of Toronto FC and the Philadelphia Union, and they should advance given their strong finish to the regular season.

Defending champions Atlanta United are the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Josef Martinez is in fine form entering the postseason, but the Five Stripes face a tough test in their first match. The New England Revolution snuck into the playoffs after an abysmal start to the season, and the Revolution play excellent defense. If they get past the Revolution, I like their chances against the Union or the Red Bulls, but that’s a tough first test.

The Seattle Sounders FC are one of the MLS’ blue bloods. They have made the playoffs each year since being formed, and they are a strong contender for the MLS Cup. Seattle is battle-tested with plenty of veterans, and the Sounders closed out their campaign with a high note after knocking off San Jose and Minnesota to end the season. They held opponents scoreless in three of their last four matches, so watch this back line.

Of the longshots, my favorite bets are New England and Portland. The Revolution play a counterattacking style that can frustrate any opponent, and it’s an excellent strategy in a one-game playoff. New England lost just three times in their last 22 matches, so there is value in this team at 25-1.

I can’t lay off Portland at this price either. The Timbers never kicked into another gear, but they won the Western Conference as a longshot last year, and this team has much of the same pieces in place.

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