If you want to bet on whether or not Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed by congress to the Supreme Court, now is the time. Bookmaker.eu has odds posted on whether or not Kavanaugh will be confirmed before October 31, 2018. The official decision on Kavanaugh’s confirmation may come as early as Saturday, as his fate will be determined by the Senate. Let’s look at the latest odds from Bookmaker.eu, the wild ride of odds movement and the senators who will decide Kavanaugh’s fate.
Will Kavanaugh Get Confirmed by Congress by October 31, 2018?
Bookmaker.eu originally offered odds on Kavanaugh’s confirmation with the “Yes” favored at -200, while the “No” was +160 shortly before Dr. Blasey Ford was scheduled to testify. The early sharp money has always been on the “Yes”, settling at the price of -250/+200 in the moments Dr. Ford testified.
As she testified, money poured in on the “No”, getting close to Pick’em. When Kavanaugh testified, the “Yes” crept back up to -150/+120, at which point the market was taken down. After the FBI supplemental investigation, BookMaker.eu reopened the market at -250/+200, and once again saw a massive inflow of sharp money on the yes. As of the morning of October 4, 2018, Kavanaugh is listed as a favorite of -400 to be confirmed.
The Senate is expected to vote on Kavanaugh’s confirmation in the next few days, with a possible vote on Saturday. With 51 GOP Senators, Kavanaugh’s confirmation could fail if two of GOP Senators Flake, Murkowski and Collins defect. If only one votes against confirmation, Vice President Pence would likely cast a “Yes” vote to break a 50-50 tie.
The FBI background report on Kavanaugh was released to the White House and passed to the Senate early Thursday morning. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell arranged a key vote on the process for Friday and if that vote passes as expected, there will be 30 hours of debate followed by a final confirmation vote on Kavanaugh, possibly coming on Saturday.
Although the FBI report will not be released to the public, senators are already coming out and saying that there is nothing of note in the report. “There’s nothing in it that we didn’t already know,” Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said in a written statement. “This investigation found no hint of misconduct.”
Senators in the Spotlight
There are five senators who will likely decide the fate of Kavanaugh’s nomination. Three are Republicans, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Jeff Flake of Arizona. None of those three are up for re-election this year. Two Democrats that are fighting to keep their seats in Republican states are Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia.
Murkowski and Collins are considered moderate Republicans and each is getting a lot of pressure from women’s groups to vote No on Kavanuagh. Murkowski is also facing pressure from Alaska Natives who are concerned about Kavanaugh’s views on Natives and indigenous rights.
Collins voted for Judge Kavanaugh in 2006 when he was nominated by George W. Bush to the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Collins has been facing the most pressure of any senator to vote No, especially from liberal activists.
Flake is retiring from the Senate this year, but he has been a critic of President Trump in the past and Flake was the main senator who called for an FBI investigation into Ford’s allegations. Flake did say, however, that he was leaning toward voting for Kavanaugh unless the FBI investigation revealed new information.
As for the two Democratic senators, Manchin and Heitkamp are in tough re-election battles in red states. Manchin voted in 2017 to confirm Judge Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee. Manchin said that if the FBI investigation found nothing he would be voting “based on the merits of him being qualified.”
Heitkamp also voted for Gorsuch in 2017 and has said previously that Kavanaugh was a “fairly standard conservative judge” and “highly qualified.” She has recently said that she doesn’t feel comfortable with the allegations against Kavanaugh.
Check out the Latest Odds on the Kavanaugh nomination and much more right now at BookMaker Sportsbook!