Viviane Araujo is heavily favored against Roxanne Modafferi at UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny on Wednesday, January 20 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This event is one of six fights on the main card on ESPN+. Modafferi is 25-17 in her career, while Araujo is 9-2 in her career. There are a total of six fights on the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ on UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny, with the headliner a bout between Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card on ESPN/ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Modafferi and Araujo and UFC picks.
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Roxanne Modafferi (25-17, 4-5 UFC)
Modafferi came into the UFC with a record of 15-10 and she has four wins and five losses in the UFC. In her last six fights, she has three wins and three losses. She defeated Antonina Shevchenko by split decision, Maycee Barber by unanimous decision, and Andrea Lee by unanimous decision; while losing to Sijara Eubanks by unanimous decision, Jennifer Maia by unanimous decision, and Lauren Murphy by unanimous decision. Modafferi has been a pro since 2003 and she has four wins by TKO/KO and five by submission. She has two first round finishes.
Modafferi said this to cagesidepress.com about her upcoming fight against “I’ve been doing special game-planning combinations; I’m excited to try them in the fight. And kind of work my game place specifically on Viviane. I think she’s well-rounded and strong, but I’m confident I can pull off the win.”
Viviane Araujo (9-2, 3-1 UFC)
Araujo came into the UFC with a record of 6-1 and she has three wins and one loss in the UFC. She defeated Talita Bernardo by KO, Alexis Davis by unanimous decision, and Montana De La Rosa by unanimous decision; while losing to Jessica Eye by unanimous decision. Araujo has been a pro since 2015 and she has three wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. She has four first round finishes.
Strikes landed per minute: Modafferi 3.14/ Araujo 4.77
Striking Accuracy: Modafferi 31% / Araujo 50%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Modafferi 4.96/ Araujo 5.32
Defense: Modafferi 53% / Araujo 56%
Takedown average: Modafferi 1.55/ Araujo 1.88
Takedown Accuracy: Modafferi 25% / Araujo 53%
Takedowns defended: Modafferi 36% / Araujo 92%
Submission average: Modafferi 0.1/ Araujo 0.0
Araujo is heavily favored in this fight at more than 3-1 and while I think Araujo has the edge in this fight, it is not a 3-1 edge. There is definitely some value on Modafferi, as she is a tough fighter who has a lot of experience. It is hard to find a lot of value on big underdogs in the UFC, but I would lean to Modafferi in this bout. I think the better choice, or safer if you prefer, is to bet the rounds. Modafferi has been going to a decision in most of her fights in recent years and her style is likely to result in Araujo getting frustrated. I think this fight goes to a decision, so I will go over the rounds total.
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny Card & Odds
Welterweight - Michael Chiesa +118 vs. Neil Magny -142
Featherweight - Douglas Silva de Andrade +239 vs. Lerone Murphy -298
Women's Flyweight - Roxanne Modafferi +267 vs. Viviane Araujo -337
Bantamweight - Francisco Figueiredo -157 vs. Jerome Rivera +130
Light Heavyweight - Vinicius Moreira +113 vs. Ike Villanueva -137
Women's Flyweight - Manon Fiorot -196 vs. Victoria Leonardo +162
Flyweight - Matt Schnell +113 vs. Tyson Nam -137
Lightweight - Mason Jones +143 vs. Mike Davis -171
Welterweight - Warlley Alves +188 vs. Mounir Lazzez -230
Middleweight - Markus Perez +118 vs. Dalcha Lungiambula -142
Flyweight - Zarrukh Adashev +345 vs. Su Mudaerji -453
Bantamweight - Gaetano Pirrello +316 vs. Ricky Simon -410
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