Middleweight slugger Kelvin Gastelum (15-5, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet Sweden’s Jack Hermansson (20-5, 11 KOs, 5 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo on Saturday, July 18, 2020 at UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The fight serves as the co-main event to a headlining title match between Deiveson Figueiredo (18-1, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs) and Joe Benavidez (28-6, 8 KOs, 9 SUBs). The main card features five contests on ESPN+, with six cards forming the prelims on the streaming service.
Let’s break down this compelling middleweight matchup and break down your best betting picks at the online sportsbook.
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Kelvin Gastelum (15-5, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs)
Gastelum is currently mired in a 2-fight slump, but each loss produced wildly different perceptions. In April 2019, Gastelum went head-to-head with Israel Adesanya in a title fight, giving the New Zealander the toughest test of his career. The fight was razor close until the final frame, and Gastelum’s aggressiveness and accuracy even stung one of the UFC’s most decorated strikers. Though Kelvin fell short in that fight, he gave an undefeated champ everything he could handle. The thinking was that he was one good round away from walking away with the belt.
But that all changed against Darrren Till. Meeting a fighter who failed at welterweight, Gastelum was expected to blast through a fighter that had trouble with aggressive boxers. Instead, Till flummoxed the 28-year old and walked away with the split decision. The result? Gastelum dropped out of the top 4 down to No. 7.
Though Hermansson is an excellent opponent, losing a third straight fight would be devastating for Gastelum. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Gastelum as a slight -130 favorite, which shows how competitive this match should be.
Jack Hermansson (20-5, 11 KOs, 5 SUBs)
“The Joker” has quietly become one of the better fighters in the 185-pound class, at one point winning four in a row to climb into the fringes of the title picture. Starting with a TKO win over Thales Leites, Hermansson nabbed another submission over Gerald Meerschaert, then did it again over a David Branch (who was hot at the time). The win over Branch was enough to earn a fight against perennial contender Ronaldo Souza, and Hermansson was able to take a unanimous decision against the Brazilian. Beating Jacare means something at 185 pounds.
But Hermansson’s momentum was derailed in his last outing, when he was derailed by Jared Cannonier. While Cannonier is a good fighter, he’s also the type of opponent that would-be contenders need to beat - a high-level gatekeeper. Hermansson was having obvious trouble with Cannonier’s explosiveness, and that’s something that might come back to haunt him here.
Significant Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Hermansson 4.9 / Gastelum 3.86
Striking accuracy: Hermansson 56% / Gastelum 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Hermansson 1.77 / Gastelum 2.87
Striking defense: Hermansson 64% / Gastelum 61%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Hermansson 2.38 / Gastelum 0.82
Takedown accuracy: Hermansson 47% / Gastelum 50%
Takedown defense: Hermansson 73% / Gastelum 62%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Hermansson 0.89 / Gastelum 0.18
UFC Picks
Tough call here, especially since Hermansson will likely turn this fight into a grind and has the grappling to really trouble Gastelum. But the American is also the quicker man here, and he is going to put in some serious work inside the pocket. Hermansson’s aggression will work against him here, as Gastelum will have ample opportunities to find the Swede’s chin. In the end, Gastelum will have piled up enough damage to get back in the win column. We’d stay away from victory bets and round totals here, as both guys are tough but have the tools to finish.
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez Card & Odds
Flyweight Championship - Joe Benavidez +165 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo -210
Flyweight - Askar Askarov +165 vs. Alexandre Pantoja -210
Middleweight - Jack Hermansson -104 vs. Kelvin Gastelum -125
Light Heavyweight - Khadis Ibragimov +150 vs. Roman Dolidze -190
Heavyweight - Sergey Spivak -161 vs. Carlos Felipe +129
Lightweight - Davi Ramos +158 vs. Arman Tsarukyan -200
Lightweight - Rafael Fiziev +127 vs. Marc Diakiese -160
Catchweight (150) - Nad Narimani +194 vs. Grant Dawson -250
Women’s Flyweight - Luana Carolina +100 vs. Ariane Lipski -130
Lightweight - Joel Alvarez +282 vs. Joe Duffy -383
Bantamweight - Brett Johns +158 vs. Montel Jackson -200
Flyweight - Malcolm Gordon +158 vs. Aleksandr Doskalchuk -200
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