Michael Chiesa is favored against Diego Sanchez at UFC 239 on Saturday, July 6 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Sanchez is 29-11 in his career, while Chiesa is 15-4 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card at UFC 239, with the headliner a bout between Jon Jones and Thiago Santos. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card with four on ESPN and three on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Sanchez and Chiesa and UFC picks.
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Diego Sanchez (29-11, 18-11 UFC)
Sanchez came into the UFC with a record of 11-0 and he has 18 wins and 11 losses in the UFC. In his last five fights, he has three wins and two losses. He defeated Marcin Held by unanimous decision, Craig White by unanimous decision, and Mickey Gall by TKO; while losing to Al Iaquinta by KO and Matt Brown by KO. Sanchez has been a pro since 2002 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and nine by submission. He has 11 first round finishes.
Michael Chiesa (15-4, 8-4 UFC)
Chiesa came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has eight wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last five fights, he has three wins and two losses. He defeated Jim Miller by submission, Beneil Dariush by submission, and Carlos Condit by submission; while losing to Kevin Lee by technical submission and Anthony Pettis by submission. Chiesa has been a pro since 2008 and he has 11 wins by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Chiesa said this to bjpenn.com about his upcoming fight this Saturday, “Anybody can be submitted on any given night. I’ve submitted guys that have never been submitted like Beneil Dariush. Without giving away too much, I know I can get a submission against anyone in the world including Diego. I have a few things and tendencies that when the opportunity presents itself I’ll submit him. You will be surprised what I have up my sleeve for this fight.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Sanchez 2.85 / Chiesa 2.14
Accuracy: Sanchez 37% / Chiesa 38%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Sanchez 2.90/ Chiesa 2.35
Defense: Sanchez 57% / Chiesa 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Sanchez 1.65/ Chiesa 3.32
Accuracy: Sanchez 24% / Chiesa 43%
Takedowns defended: Sanchez 50% / Chiesa 68%
Submission average: Sanchez 0.9 / Chiesa 1.4
UFC Picks
Chiesa is a -340 favorite over Sanchez and while Chiesa may very well win, that price is too high for me. The rounds look to be the way to go in this fight, as the two fighters have combined for 16 first-round finishes. Both will be looking for a way to get an early submission, so I will take the rounds to go under the total.
UFC 239 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, July 6, with five fights on the main pay-per-view card, headlined by Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos and seven preliminary bouts, with four on ESPN and three on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Light Heavyweight - Jon Jones -600 vs. Thiago Santos
Women's Bantamweight - Amanda Nunes -350 vs. Holly Holm
Welterweight - Ben Askren -260 vs. Jorge Masvidal
Light Heavyweight - Luke Rockhold -180 vs. Jan Blachowicz
Welterweight - Michael Chiesa -340 vs. Diego Sanchez
Preliminary card (ESPN)
Featherweight - Arnold Allen -390 vs. Gilbert Melendez
Bantamweight - Marlon Vera vs. Nohelin Hernandez
Women's Strawweight - Claudia Gadelha -225 vs. Randa Markos
Bantamweight - Yadong Song -220 vs. Alejandro Pérez
Early Preliminary card (UFC Fight Pass)
Middleweight - Edmen Shahbazyan -679 vs. Jack Marshman
Welterweight - Ismail Naurdiev -500 vs. Chance Rencountre
Women's Bantamweight - Julia Avila -235 vs. Pannie Kianzad
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