Israel Adesanya is a solid favorite over Derek Brunson at UFC 230 on Saturday night in New York City, New York. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Brunson is 18-6 in his career, while Adesanya is 14-0 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card at UFC 230, with the headliner a bout between Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card with four on FS1 and four on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Brunson and Adesanya and UFC predictions.
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Derek Brunson (18-6, 9-4 UFC)
Brunson came into the UFC with a record of 9-2 and he has nine wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last four fights in the UFC, he has two wins and two losses. He defeated Dan Kelly by KO and Lyoto Machida by KO; while losing to Anderson Silva by unanimous decision and Ronaldo Souza by KO. Brunson has been a pro since 2010 and has 10 wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. He has 14 first round finishes.
Israel Adesanya (14-0, 3-0 UFC)
Adesanya came into the UFC with a record of 11-0 and he has three wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Rob Wilkinson by TKO, Marvin Vettori by split decision, and Brad Tavares by unanimous decision. Adesanya has been a pro since 2012 and has 12 wins by TKO/KO. He has five first round finishes.
Adesanya said this to fightful.com about his upcoming fight against Brunson, “Its three ways that I’m going to win, round one stoppage….round two stoppage or submission, those are my three options and he could choose wisely. I’ve just played this out in my head and those are the three ways I can see myself winning. I mean, look at the styles…look at the way I strike, look at the way I handle guys. In my last fight, they said Brad Tavares was too much and it’s too soon, but I think he can even beat Derek Brunson. I’m not worried, I just focus on myself and I play the game right.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Brunson 3.16 / Adesanya 4.69
Accuracy: Brunson 45% / Adesanya 55%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Brunson 2.55/ Adesanya 2.22
Defense: Brunson 50% / Adesanya 71%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Brunson 2.88/ Adesanya 0.00
Accuracy: Brunson 32% / Adesanya 0%
Takedowns defended: Brunson 100% / Adesanya 81%
Submission average: Brunson 0.6 / Adesanya 0.3
UFC Predictions
Another of the big favorites at UFC 230 is Adesanya, as he is more than a 3-1 favorite. He may be good enough to warrant these types of odds, but I am not laying more than 3-1. I do think it is worth noting what he said in his comments about this fight because it is hard to see it going the distance. I think the best choice on this bout is simply to take the rounds under the total.
UFC 230 takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York on Saturday night, November 3 with five fights on the main pay-per-view card, headlined by Cormier vs. Lewis and eight preliminary bouts, with four on FS1 and four on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Heavyweight - Daniel Cormier -675 vs. Derrick Lewis
Middleweight - Chris Weidman -180 vs. Ronaldo Souza
Middleweight - David Branch -365 vs. Jared Cannonier
Middleweight - Karl Roberson -285 vs.Jack Marshman
Middleweight - Israel Adesanya -350 vs. Derek Brunson
Preliminary Card (FS1)
Featherweight - Jason Knight -265 vs. Jordan Rinaldi
Women's Flyweight - Sijara Eubanks -520 vs. Roxanne Modafferi
Featherweight - Julio Arce -305 vs. Sheymon Moraes
Welterweight - Lyman Good -667 vs. Ben Saunders
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Lightweight - Lando Vannata -300 vs. Matt Frevola
Featherweight - Shane Burgos -300 vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Bantamweight - Montel Jackson -135 vs. Brian Kelleher
Heavyweight - Adam Wieczorek -240 vs. Marcos Rogério de Lima
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