UFC 230 Picks - Karl Roberson vs. Jack Marshman

UFC 230 Roberson Vs Marshman Lines

Karl Roberson is favored over Jack Marshman at UFC 230 on Saturday night in New York City, New York. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Roberson is 6-1 in his career, while Marshman is 22-7 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card at UFC 230, with the headliner a bout between Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card with four on FS1 and four on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Roberson and Marshman and UFC picks.

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Karl Roberson (6-1, 1-1 UFC)

Roberson came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he has one win and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Darren Stewart by submission, while losing to Cezar Ferreira by technical submission. Roberson has been a pro since 2015 and has two wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. The submission wins were by two armbar and RNC. He has five first round finishes.

Jack Marshman (22-7, 2-2 UFC)

Marshman came into the UFC with a record of 20-5 and he has two wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Magnus Cedenblad by TKO and Ryan Janes by unanimous decision; while losing to Thiago Santos by TKO and Antônio Carlos Júnior by submission. Marshman has been a pro since 2010 and has 13 wins by TKO/KO and five by submission. The submission wins were by guillotine, RNC, two armbar, and triangle. He has nine first round finishes.

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Roberson 2.99 / Marshman 3.49
Accuracy: Roberson 72% / Marshman 33%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Roberson 1.38/ Marshman 4.42
Defense: Roberson 57% / Marshman 57%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Roberson 1.73/ Marshman 0.00
Accuracy: Roberson 100% / Marshman 0%
Takedowns defended: Roberson 50% / Marshman 16%
Submission average: Roberson 3.5 / Marshman 0.0

UFC Picks

The UFC 230 fight card is one of the most lopsided in terms of big favorites that I can ever remember. It seems every single fight has a big favorite. Will UFC 230 be one for the dogs? Oddmakers have Roberson as -285 favorite which could be too high considering he has only fought twice in the UFC. Marshman has only fought four times in the UFC, so it is not like he has a ton of UFC experience either, but Roberson as almost a 3-1 favorite? Perhaps Roberson will end up with the win, but I have to take a small shot on Marshman simply because of the value. I also think there is some value on the total. These two fighters are known as finishers, as they have combined for 14 first round finishes in their careers. I will look for this one to be decided within the distance and go under the rounds total.

UFC 230 takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York on Saturday night, November 3 with five fights on the main pay-per-view card, headlined by Cormier vs. Lewis and eight preliminary bouts, with four on FS1 and four on UFC Fight Pass.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Heavyweight - Daniel Cormier -675 vs. Derrick Lewis
Middleweight - Chris Weidman -180 vs. Ronaldo Souza
Middleweight - David Branch -365 vs. Jared Cannonier
Middleweight - Karl Roberson -285 vs.Jack Marshman
Middleweight - Israel Adesanya -350 vs. Derek Brunson

Preliminary Card (FS1)

Featherweight - Jason Knight -265 vs. Jordan Rinaldi
Women's Flyweight - Sijara Eubanks -520 vs. Roxanne Modafferi
Featherweight - Julio Arce -305 vs. Sheymon Moraes
Welterweight - Lyman Good -667 vs. Ben Saunders

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Lightweight - Lando Vannata -300 vs. Matt Frevola
Featherweight - Shane Burgos -300 vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Bantamweight - Montel Jackson -135 vs. Brian Kelleher
Heavyweight - Adam Wieczorek -240 vs. Marcos Rogério de Lima

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