Week 1 NFL Odds Analysis

Week 1 NFL Odds Analysis

NFL Week 1 is finally here, as the Green Bay Packers visit the Chicago Bears on Thursday night on NBC. The goal when we analyze the NFL odds each week will be to see where the money is going and to analyze the biggest early line moves. Week 1 is unique, because the lines have been out for months, so we have to take these Week 1 odds with a grain of salt. We’ll look at all of the games and the line movement, but we’ll be aware that these lines have been out for a long time.

Week 1 NFL Odds at BookMaker

Game Opening Line Current Line

Thursday, September 5

Packers at Bears
Bears -3.5, 46 Bears -3, 46.5

Sunday, September 8

Falcons at Vikings
Vikings -4.5, 47.5 Vikings -4, 47.5
Redskins at Eagles
Eagles -8, 46.5 Eagles -9, 46
Bills at Jets
Jets -3.5, 38.5 Jets -3, 40
Ravens at Dolphins
Ravens -3.5, 36.5 Ravens -7, 37.5
49ers at Buccaneers
49ers -1, 48.5 Pick, 50
Chiefs at Jaguars
Chiefs -5, 52.5 Chiefs -4, 52.5
Titans at Browns
Browns -5, 45.5 Browns -6, 45.5
Rams at Panthers
Rams -3, 50.5 Rams -3, 50.5
Lions at Cardinals
Pick, 48.5 Lions -2.5, 47.5
Bengals at Seahawks
Seahawks -7.5, 43.5 Seahawks -9.5, 44
Colts at Chargers
Chargers -3.5, 48 Chargers -6.5, 44.5
Giants at Cowboys
Cowboys -7, 46 Cowboys -7, 45.5
Steelers at Patriots
Patriots -6, 51.5 Patriots -5.5, 51

Monday, September 9

Texans at Saints
Saints -7.5, 54 Saints -7, 53
Broncos at Raiders
Raiders -3, 43 Pick, 43

Biggest Line Moves

There are five games that have had line moves of two points or more. That is not likely to occur in the regular season, but it happens in Week 1 because of injuries, trades and even a retirement. The top line move for Week 1 is on the Baltimore Ravens. They opened up as a 3.5-point favorite at Miami and that number is up to 7. The Dolphins have traded away a number of players and it is obvious they are simply throwing away this season and looking to rebuild with draft picks. The public is going to be all over the Ravens this week so there will be some value on the Dolphins, but whether there is enough value is the question.

The Chargers have gone from a 3.5-point favorite to a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Colts. This line move is simply the reaction to Andrew Luck’s retirement. There could be some excellent value on the Colts as they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and Jacoby Brissett is not a bad quarterback.

The Broncos have gone from a 3-point underdog against the Raiders to a pick. This line move occurred long ago when Denver added Joe Flacco as their quarterback. The Raiders could get some public support because they are playing at home on Monday night.

The Lions have gone from a pick to a 2.5-point favorite at Arizona. This is the one line move that mystifies me. The Cardinals have a new head coach, a new quarterback in Kyler Murray and some excitement. How can anyone be excited to lay points with a Matt Patricia coached team?

The other game that moved two points was the Seahawks going from a 7.5-point favorite to a 9.5-point choice. This line move seems to be a public move, as bettors are counting on Seattle at home. The value in this game will definitely be on the Bengals plus the points.

Total Moves of Note

There are six games that have had line moves of a point or more on the total. The biggest one is the Colts and Chargers moving from 48 to 44.5. That line move is simply a move because of Andrew Luck’s retirement. Two games moved a point and a half, as the Bills and Jets total went from 38.5 to 40, while the 49ers and Bucs moved from 48.5 to 50. Three games had a point move on the total, as the Ravens and Dolphins total went from 36.5 to 37.5, the Lions and Cardinals went from 48.5 to 47.5, while the Texans and Saints total went from 54 to 53.

Check out the latest Week 1 NFL odds at BookMaker.eu.

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