At the beginning of the season, most gamblers had the Kansas City Chiefs tabbed for the Super Bowl.
Since 2019, the Chiefs have made the Super Bowl five times, winning three. Furthermore, Kansas City has played on Super Sunday the past three seasons. Thus, those expectations were completely understandable.
But as it turned out, the Chiefs' blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the February 2025 Super Bowl served as a portent.
The Kansas City Chiefs' dynasty is shattered, obliterated, and over. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is injured and could miss all of the 2026 season.
All that remains are the ashes of a team that grew old and fat on its headlines and social media.
On Christmas Evening, the Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos in what was expected to be a pivotal game.
Instead, it is likely a mismatch. Denver is fighting for the top seed in the AFC. Kansas City will play for what little self-respect it has left.
As the only game on Thursday night and with the nation off to celebrate the holiday, betting traffic will be high for this AFC West rivalry matchup.
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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Odds at Bookmaker
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is the venue for the matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday, December 25, 2025. Kickoff time is at 8:15 p.m. ET with television coverage on Prime Video.
Denver opened as a 12.5-point favorite with Kansas City a 12.5-point dog.
Denver is a -950 moneyline chalk with Kansas City at +640.
The Broncos and Chiefs opened at an over/under of 37.5.
Denver is the understandable favorite and public choice as the new power of the AFC West.
Kansas City has lost the NFL betting community's respect.
Denver Broncos
Last game, the Denver Broncos lost 34-20 to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3.5-point road favorites. The game went over the total of 46.
Denver is 12-3 straight up, 6-8-1 against the spread, and 7-8 over/under the total.
Denver ranks 10th in total offense, 9th in passing, 19th in rushing, 13th in scoring, and 14th in fewest turnovers committed.
Denver ranks 4th in total defense, 10th vs. the pass, 1st vs. the rush, 5th in fewest points allowed, and 20th in takeaways.
Denver has covered three out of its most recent four games. Denver went over the total in four of its last four matchups.
Kansas City Chiefs
In the last game, the Kansas City Chiefs lost 26-9 to the Tennessee Titans as 3.5-point road favorites. The game went under the total of 37.5.
Now, Kansas City is 6-9 straight up, 5-10 against the spread, and 4-11 over/under the total.
Overall, Kansas City ranks 15th for total offense, 10th for passing, 22nd for rushing, 20th for scoring, and 7th for fewest turnovers committed.
Kansas City ranks 10th for total defense, 12th vs. the pass, 8th vs. the rush, 4th for fewest points allowed, and 22nd for takeaways.
Late on, Kansas City has covered none of its last seven games. Kansas City went under the total in three of its last three matchups.
Broncos at Chiefs Betting Trends
The Broncos failed to cover the spread in eight of their most recent ten away games. Denver went under the total in four of their last six road tilts.
The Chiefs failed to get the money in their most recent three home games, but covered the spread in the four home games before that. The Chiefs went under the total in their most recent six home tilts.
Denver has bossed the cashier’s cage with seven payouts in their last eight meetings with Kansas City. The last five meetings between the Broncos and Chiefs went under the total.
Specifically in Kansas City, Denver covered the spread in three of their most recent five visits. Six of the last seven games between the Broncos and Chiefs in Kansas City went under the total.
Broncos at Chiefs Best Bets
As mentioned earlier, the worm has turned in the AFC West.
Denver has shown more NFL betting value and superior form.
Kansas City is an enhanced dog, but it's not likely to matter.
Main Pick: Denver Broncos
Over/Under Pick: Under the Total
Player Prop Picks: Bo Nix Over the Total Yards Total
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