I finally had a winning week on my NFL top total plays improving my overall record for the season, though I’m still in the red. The goal is to win more than you lose and I’m slowly making my way up the ladder with another solid week hopefully getting me over the hump. While a majority of bettors favored the UNDER in last week’s Denver-Las Vegas matchup I bet the OVER and it paid off. Russell Wilson had his best day in a Broncos uniform accounting for three touchdowns, though his club lost 32-23.
We saw an increase in scoring in Week 4 with six teams putting up more than 30 points and only five tallying fewer than 20. Half of the NFL’s 32 teams scored 20 points or less in Week 3 so maybe things are starting to trend in a different direction. And for the first time in four weeks the UNDER failed to cash in a majority of games. The Week 4 schedule produced an even split on the total.
A new coaching staff in Chicago has done little to change the offensive production. The NFL’s worst passing game averages less than 100 yards and the Bears are next to last in total offense and scoring. It was a good move to bet the UNDER last week with the Bears scoring four field goals in their 20-12 loss falling a touchdown below the closing total. I didn’t anticipate the Vikings and Saints combining for 53 points taking my only loss of the week when backing the UNDER in that matchup. It’s on to Week 5 of the NFL season as I look to improve my top total plays record.
NFL Week 5 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Pick: UNDER 46
One thing both teams do pretty well is play defense and the Steelers have to be a bit better since their quarterback situation is unsettled. The move was made last week to rookie Kenny Pickett and while he might be the starter of the future he has to begin somewhere. And facing the Bills on the road in his first start is a daunting task. I don’t anticipate the group breaking through in this game.
The teams have played in each of the past three seasons with no one scoring more than 26 points. They cashed the UNDER in all three meetings with an average of less than 36 points. The Steelers have had Josh Allen’s number and while the Bills may win the game it isn’t going to be a blowout like the 14-point opening line suggests.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Pick: UNDER 45
Since teams have played below the total in nearly 60 percent of the games this season it only makes sense that two-thirds of my picks back the UNDER. The Dolphins faced a lot of criticism over their handling of Tua Tagovailoa and with their QB on the shelf the offense isn’t going to be as dynamic. That’s not a knock against Teddy Bridgewater rather just the facts. We saw Miami struggle in last week’s loss to Cincinnati and the Jets are underrated defensively.
I’m not sure the Jets are ready to take off despite getting Zach Wilson back in the lineup last week. He was rusty and sustained an ankle injury that limited him in practice. And if Wilson has a bum wheel part of his game is eliminated. I just don’t see the offenses having enough firepower to reach the point total in this contest making the UNDER the smart play.
Las Vegas Raider at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: OVER 51
It makes no sense to bet the OVER on the only game with an opening total above 50, especially with all the games that finish below the total. But when it comes to these AFC West rivals, scoring is the name of the game. We saw both teams flash their offensive upside last week against strong defensive units. The Chiefs put up 41 points on Tampa while the Raiders go their first win with a 32-point outing against the Broncos.
The Chiefs are second in the NFL averaging 32.3 points despite tallying just 17 in a loss to Indy a few weeks ago. The Raiders, meanwhile, are averaging nearly 26 points in their last three games. And when they get together we typically see fireworks. The winning team scored at least 40 points in four of the past five meetings and they combined to average 62.5 points while cashing the OVER in each of the last four encounters. I can see that happening again.
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