Last week was the reason why we bet teasers on NFL games. Winning is a good feeling and collecting some shekels in the process is why we keep coming back. It doesn’t happen every week so enjoy it when it does. My three-team Week 4 teaser paid off handsomely with the strategy behind placing the bets working out to perfection. The goal is obviously to always win more than you lose and not to get overconfident or cocky win hitting a winner. So, with last week behind me it’s off to Week 5 to see if we can continue the heater.
Teasing the line in the Jacksonville-Philadelphia game was genius on my part, though it got testy in the fourth quarter. As a 6.5-point dog the Jags would’ve lost, but getting 12.5-points made them a winner in the 29-21 setback. It took a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter to close the gap giving the Jags a cover. I also backed the Pats with a teased line of +16 and they nearly beat Green Bay outright, eventually falling 27-24 in overtime.
As it turns out I didn’t need to tease the total in the Denver-Las Vegas contest, though it’s always nice to have insurance. I expected to see more from Russell Wilson and he delivered, sort of, on Sunday with three total touchdowns and the Broncos had their highest scoring game of the season in the 32-23 setback to cash the OVER giving me another winner. But as we know things can change in a hurry and success one week is just that. There is no carryover. It’s on to the Week 5 lineup to see what lines we can tease to come up with a winning ticket.
NFL Week 5 Betting Lines
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Opening Line: 49ers -6.5
Teaser Line: 49ers -0.5
I’m backing San Francisco’s defense more than anything on this pick. The group has looked strong allowing only three touchdowns this season and held the Rams to three field goals in Monday’s victory. The Panthers haven’t done much offensively ranking last in total offense while averaging fewer than 20 points. The Niners don’t have to do much on offense and Jimmy Garoppolo is just the guy for that. As long as they don’t turn the ball over the Niners prevail.
The thing about the NFL is that you never know what’s going to happen. Carolina is a desperate team and they’re at home, which means something. SF’s losses were shoddy performances in away games so teasing the spread down looks like a smart move. You can’t lose by half a point so as long as the Niners come out ahead we have a winner.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Opening Line: Cowboys +5.5
Teaser Line: Cowboys +11.5
I would have seriously considered backing the Cowboys at +5.5 without teasing the line, but adding more points is a bonus that I can’t overlook. The Rams have struggled offensively with an offensive line that’s been one of the worst in football. The group yielded seven sacks in the loss to San Francisco and the 16 sacks allowed are the second-most in the NFL. Add in Matthew Stafford’s league-leading six picks and the Rams stink right now.
The Cowboys have relied on their defense all season allowing fewer than 20 points in every game while being third-best in points allowed. Cooper Rush has done enough to lead the Boys to three straight wins and spotting Dallas 11.5-points on the teased line might as well seem like 20. The Rams will get things figured out, but they are not 12 points better than Dallas at this point.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Opening Total: 51
Teaser Total: 45
We’ve seen high-scoring games between these two in the past and there’s nothing to suggest anything different in the first meeting between the AFC West rivals this season. The Chiefs bounced back from a loss to Indianapolis when they scored just 17 points to put a hurt on a good Tampa defense in a 41-31 Week 4 victory amassing 417 total yards.
The Raiders have been consistent on offense ranking in the middle of the pack in total yards while placing among the top-10 in scoring. They also had a nice outing against a good defense shredding Denver for 32 points last week. The teams combined to average 62.5 points while cashing the OVER in the previous four meetings. Teasing the line down to 45 gives me a great chance of hitting the OVER for another winner.
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