Betting on the NFL doesn’t seem like a big risk, right? Pick a winner and collect the money. Well, the sportsbooks are in business for a reason. And if it’s hard enough to pick one winner the difficulty level skyrockets when more than one game is in play. The increased payout for multiple winners is enticing, which is why parlay cards exist. But the odds of losing one game on a multi-team ticket also increase.
Playing the favorites is a good strategy since the team laying points usually wins outright. That happened in Week 4 with favorites going 10-6 SU. However, factor in the spread and things are not so cut and dry, which is why the payout is better on a favored team against the line. That’s not so easy though with teams laying points going just 7-9 ATS last week. Handicapping the teams and making the right picks on a parlay card isn’t that easy after all. Backing the Cowboys and Chargers was a good move with both covering the line.
I had a good week on my parlay picks but still didn’t win them all. And as you know all bets have to hit to cash a winning ticket. Selecting a few underdog winners increases the payout, especially if you pick the winners on the moneyline. A noticeable trend in the early season is dogs of 3.5-points or less having success outright. It happened again in Week 4 with six teams catching up to that many points winning outright. Let’s take a look at the Week 5 NFL schedule for some parlay card winners.
NFL Week 5 Betting Lines
Parlay Card Favorites
To increase the chances of producing a winning ticket and to just feel good about what we’re trying to do, it’s always good to back a few favorites. Picking all favorites is a sound strategy though it does reduce the payout on a winning ticket. If you don’t care about winnings this is a sound play, but keep in mind that upsets happen every week. My two favorites came through last week with the Chargers and Cowboys covering in their games. What teams laying points in Week 5 are good bets?
If Jimmy Garoppolo can manage the game the San Francisco defense will do the rest. We saw that on Monday night in the Niners’ 24-9 win over the Rams. It looks like the Niners are playing with 15 defenders on the field they’re all over the place. They have had troubles on the road but I don’t see the Panthers giving them much resistance on Sunday. I’m backing SF minus the 6.5-points in this matchup.
A strong home favorite is Minnesota in its game with the Bears. Chicago continues to struggle offensively and while the Vikings aren’t the dominant team on defense they were just a few years ago, worse units have thwarted the Bears, who are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road scoring a total of 22 points in those games. The Vikings are 6-2 SU in their last eight home games against the Bears when favored.
Parlay Card Underdog Winners
Picking the dogs is where it gets tricky on the parlay card. I backed the Patriots as a 9.5-point dog against the Packers last week and nearly hit it outright. Who knows what happens if Brian Hoyer doesn’t get hurt early leaving Bailey Zappe to finish the game. Still, the Pats stayed within the spread in the OT loss, though a moneyline winner would have been sweet in that one. My other dog pick was Jacksonville and it looked good early with a two-touchdown lead. However, it didn’t last and the Jags failed to cover the 6.5-point closing line in the 29-21 loss to Philly.
The upsets are out there we just have to nail the right ones. For the first time this season the Bengals are catching points and I like them +3 in the Sunday Night Football contest at Baltimore. Cincinnati swept the last season series scoring 41 points in each game and the Ravens have struggled to stop teams leaving the door open for another big game from Joe Burrow.
The Rams had a hard time penetrating San Francisco’s stingy defense on Monday night and they face another good group in the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Cooper Rush is a folk hero in big D leading the club to three straight wins and covers while the defense allowed an average of two touchdowns. In fact, Dallas hasn’t allowed an opponent to score 20 points this season making that 5.5-point spread look much bigger.
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