Just when you think you have the NFL figured out you realize in depressing fashion that you don’t. Betting on the league is fun as long as you do it responsibly, and there’s always the chance of hitting the big payday which keeps us coming back. Well, I’m back to give it another go on my Week 4 teaser picks after a frustrating couple of games last Sunday. It might be time to take the Jacksonville Jaguars seriously. I didn’t last week and it cost me ending any hope of a three-team teaser winner.
Here we are after three weeks of the season and the Jags are in first place in the AFC South with the second-best record in the conference. Are they for real? The LA Chargers probably thinks so after getting whacked 38-10. A blown 8-point lead in the fourth quarter of their opener is the only thing preventing the Jags from being undefeated. In my infinite wisdom I backed the Bolts teasing the line to LA -1. They never led and the injury to Justin Herbert was probably more serious than anyone outside the organization thought
I also didn’t expect an avalanche of points in the Seattle-Atlanta game. Waiting to make a wager sometimes pays off and it did in this instance. The total opened at 42 and closed at 45.5. Tacking 6-points to the total gave me winner since the teams played below the teased line of 51.5. Backing the Titans also proved to be a winner with their outright 24-22 decision over the Raiders. Last week was an improvement, though still not a winner.
Let’s take a look at the Week 4 lineup to see what lines we can tease to come up with a winning ticket.
NFL Week 4 Betting Lines
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Line: Jaguars +6.5
Teaser Line: Jaguars +12.5
I guess you can say I’m officially on the Jaguars’ bandwagon. Hiring a Super Bowl winning coach to clean up the Urban Meyer mess was the best move the team made. And it also turns out that Doug Pederson is kind of a quarterback whisperer, just what Trevor Lawrence needed in his development. We still had our doubts after the Jags slammed Indianapolis 24-0 in Week 2, but following that with another impressive outing against the Chargers is a sign.
The Eagles are one of just two unbeaten teams after three games and they looked good winning the last two by an average of more than two touchdowns. This is a risky move teasing Jacksonville’s line to +12.5, but the Jags have played efficient, disciplined football with Lawrence looking like the player most expected when he was drafted first overall. And I’m still not convinced Jalen Hurts is as good as he’s been early in the year. I could be changing my mind again after this game, but I’ll back the Jags and the points.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Total: 45.5
Teaser Total: 39.5
Backing the OVER in a Broncos game should never happen after last week’s pillow fight with San Francisco. The Russell Wilson era in the Mile High city hasn’t been what most expected, but Denver has won two in a row and is a missed field goal away from being perfect through three weeks. Granted it would have been a miraculous kick, but still. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s going on with the offense given the weapons they have and you expect a break out soon.
With three losses to open the season the Raiders are in a must-win situation since only one team in NFL history has reached the postseason after dropping its first four games. That will likely change with the number of playoff teams increasing but the bottom line is that it’s hard to do. We were supposed to see more offense from Vegas with Josh McDaniels coaching and Davante Adams catching. When the teams get it right it’ll be exciting, maybe that happens this week to go OVER my teased line.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers
Opening Line: Patriots +10
Teaser Line: Patriots +16
They’re down a starting quarterback and on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, but never underestimate a Bill Belichick coached team. Catching 10-points on the opening line never happened when Tom Brady was in a Pats’ uniform, but times they are a changin’. I’ll gladly tease that line to Pats +16 despite all that’s going against them.
With Mac Jones out with an injury the Pats turn to veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer to start against Green Bay, but the issues are much deeper than that. Turnovers and a soft defense have kept the Pats down, but those areas are fixable and I don’t think they’ll continue.
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