If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We went 4-2 with the picks in Week 13 and that takes the season record to 32-28-1. We have four plays to look at for this week. Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 14 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 14 Ugly Dog Picks
Detroit Lions +7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Lions got a win last week under interim head coach Darrell Bevell, but they are still a bad team. They are also going against a Green Bay team that is rolling. The Packers have scored more points than any team in the NFL so far this season and they will be tough to stop. The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the league and they have no real chance to stop Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense. The public is going to be all over the Packers in this game and that helps us a little bit, but it is still hard to take a Detroit team that is going to have to find a way to score a lot of points to stay in this game. We take the Lions plus the points as an ugly dog.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars have just one win on the season but they have been very good to us lately against the spread, as they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games. We have them again this week as they host the Tennessee Titans. The Titans did not play well last week against Cleveland so you would expect a bounce back game from them on Sunday. Bettors are definitely backing the Titans and laying the points in this contest. Not many people think the Titans are going to lose back-to-back games. The question is whether or not the Tennessee defense will play well enough for them to cover this number. We could be looking at a backdoor cover in this game and we would definitely take it as we have the Jaguars plus the points as an ugly dog.
New York Jets +13.5 at Seattle Seahawks
This one is no surprise, as we are stuck taking the Jets yet again. We finally got a pointspread win with the Jets last week when they covered against the Raiders. This game looks really ugly, as the Jets are facing a Seattle team that is coming off a loss to the Giants. Seattle should be extremely focused and ready to go for this one and there is no reason to think that the Jets are going to be competitive. The public is all over Seattle in this game and it would not be surprising to see the line go to 14. Seattle has not looked like a great team in recent weeks, but this is still a good spot for them. It doesn’t matter to us, as we take the ugly dog and go with the Jets plus the points.
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Eagles have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season and now they are hosting the NFC’s top team, the New Orleans Saints. The public wants nothing to do with the Eagles and it is hard to argue, as Philadelphia has been sickening on offense. The good news for those backing the Eagles is that Philadelphia is finally making a change at quarterback from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts. There is no question that Hurts can’t be any worse than Wentz, but it may not matter, as the Eagles have a lot of problems and the New Orleans defense has been great in recent games. This one is ugly, but we take the Eagles plus the points.
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